Will Aaron Judge get to 62?

So, let's revisit the topic one final time. Will Judge hit 62 home runs to break Maris' record? I'm going to stick with my gut, and say no. I'm taking Judge to finish the season with 61 home runs, leaving him tied with Maris for the all-time American League single-season home run record.

Judge homered nine times in August, and 10 times in September to pull him within one of 62. However, Judge has been getting the Barry Bonds treatment as of late, and has been stuck on 61 for four days now. Judge has drawn at least one walk in eight of his last nine games and drew a season-high 30 walks in September. You know why that is? Because teams refuse to let Judge be the one to beat them. 

I'd be shocked if Judge doesn't start the remaining three games of the season for New York, but one thing has become clear, teams are afraid of Judge. And they should be. I know Texas is out of the playoff race, but don't think for a second someone wants to be the guy who gives up the record-breaking homer. Everyone has a certain level of self pride, and expect to see that over the next three games. 

New York has a doubleheader on Tuesday, which I actually think benefits Judge because he'll have a chance in between games to tinker with his swing if needed, but still, don't be surprised if he doesn't get many pitches to hit, let alone hit out of the ball park. Yes, Globe Life Field is the eighth-most hitter friendly stadium in baseball, but there's one little thing people might be forgetting? 162 games is a lot of games, and fatigue eventually begins to set in. 

Hate to say it, but it might be starting to happen now. No one but Judge knows, but still, it's more than just a small possibility. And then you have to ask yourself whether or not Judge is beginning to press. Again, only Judge knows the answer to that, but still, it's more than just a possibility. 

Judge is going to be a free agent this offseason, and nothing would be better for him than heading into free agency as the AL single-season home run leader. Pundits think he's already locked up the MVP, and believe it or not, breaking Maris' record would probably benefit him more financially than winning the World Series and/or World Series MVP. It might sound crazy, but it's true. 

You know why? Because no American League player has ever broke Maris' record. It's hard to put a definitive number on exactly how much it would benefit him, but how much Judge gets this offseason could hinge on whether or not he finishes the season with 61, or 62 homers. Remember, it's one thing to tie a record, it's another to break one.

Judge knows all this, and maybe, just maybe, those thoughts are starting to affect him at the plate. Is it likely? Probably not. But could it be? Yes indeed. We'll just have to wait and see. 

The Bet: Judge < 61.5 Home Runs (+170 odds via Caesars)