Will Michael Toglia Become the Next Great Rockies’ Slugger?

His power shined that season at High-A Spokane, hitting 17 home runs in 64 games before being promoted to Double-A Hartford in early August.

The 6’5” outfielder and first baseman repeated the Eastern League to begin 2022 and continued to mash. His 23 home runs, coupled with five from the previous year, set a record for most in Yard Goats history. Seven more in 17 games at Triple-A Albuquerque signaled to the team’s top brass that Toglia was ready to debut in The Show.

Toglia spent a majority of 2023 in the Pacific Coast League with four promotions to Denver that produced less than his age-23 season the year prior. A path to playing time in 2024 would blocked by Kris Bryant and Elehuris Montero at first base while Bryant and Charlie Blackmon stood in his way on most days in right field.

Toglia Party

Toglia made his first Opening Day roster in 2024 on the heels of a strong showing in Spring Training. He started only 12 of Colorado’s first 22 games with a slash line of .106/.143/.362 as he struggled to find a rhythm.

A demotion to Triple-A served him and his approach in the batter’s box well over the next month. When Bryant went on the injured list with a left rib contusion on June 6, the organization made the decision to play Toglia every day. The path was cleared even with others still on the roster.

That first day back in the Majors produced a single and RBI against Sonny Gray in St. Louis to aid in a road victory that snapped a five-game losing streak. A bases-clearing triple that devolved into a Little League grand slam the next day provided even more momentum for Toglia. 

Productivity at the plate slowed over the next stretch, but never stopped. Strikeouts were still a part of his game — it was no surprise after going down 27.1% of the time in the minors — yet the power was still present. Both were unavoidable. 

On June 15, Toglia launched his first home run, a grand slam, since returning to the Rockies. In the same game, rookie Hunter Goodman hit two homers and Ryan McMahon stole home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. It was the first time in the modern era any team had ever accomplished all three events in the same contest. Toglia took off from there.

Manager Bud Black began to pencil him in at first base where he’d stay for the final 90 games of the season. Not even Hall of Famer Todd Helton had a streak that extensive as it was the longest since the team’s first superstar, Andrés Galarraga, played 99 consecutive games at first from July 24, 1995 to May 11, 1996.

On July 14 at Citi Field, Toglia etched his named into the history books. The slugger hit three home runs against the New York Mets. It was the club’s first three-homer game away from Coors Field since 2016 and first ever accomplished by a switch-hitter. 

Toglia also added the stolen base to his bag of tricks. He joined Galarraga as the only first basemen (90% of games at the position) with Colorado to record at least 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases in a season.

He walked more and his potential for patience flourished. The 21 free passes in August bumped his season-long total to 54 and his walk rate to 11.8%, tops among regulars on the club. A total of 53 walks following his promotion was third-most in the NL.

Altogether, Toglia became the first Rockie since Trevor Story in 2019 with at least 25 home runs, 10 stolen bases and 50 walks in a season and only the ninth player to achieve such a balance in team history. 

Mark Reynolds 2.0?

If you look at the all-time charts for most career strikeouts by a hitter, a lot of notable players are found, including several members of Cooperstown. That list features Mark Reynolds at no. 12 with 1,927 strikeouts.

Reynolds struck out 204 times as a 24-year-old in 2008. That didn’t prevent the Arizona Diamondbacks from playing him any less. He ended up striking up over 200 times for three consecutive seasons (2008-2010) and led the league in the category for four-straight.

Despite struggling to put the ball in play at times, Reynolds had a solid career in the Majors. He slugged 298 home runs and his teams won 90 or more games four times and 80 or more eight times. With Colorado at age 33, he struck out 18 more times than the franchise record holder for most in a single-season and still contributed to an 87-win season that sent the 2017 Rockies to the postseason for the first time in eight years.

Through 192 games in the Majors, it’s fair to draw a comparison between Reynolds and Toglia. The latter is striking out (33.1%) at a similar clip in the Majors to what the former (32.4%) did in his first two seasons. However, his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are noticeably less than the 13-year veteran over this period.

The tendency for strikeouts is something Colorado has been struggling with for the better part of a decade. Since Black took over in 2017, the Rockies have witnessed 13 seasons of a player striking out 150 or more times, second-most in MLB during that span and most in the National League. (Prior to this, the club had only one ever strikeout that much: Galarraga with 157 in 1996.)

Last season, Colorado nearly set a Modern Era record by striking out 75 times in a five-game stretch from Sept. 3-7. Toglia was sent back to the dugout six times in 20 plate appearances (30%), but five other Rockies came up empty even more during that stretch.

It was a devilish performance for the Phoenix-born player from July 9-14 that highlighted the potential for more. Toglia fanned six times and went 6-for-23 (.261) with a walk. But the six hits surrounded by six whiffs in those six games: all home runs.

The Breakout

Before asserting himself in 2024, the entire Rockies organization maintained throughout his first two seasons that Toglia was Gold Glove caliber at first. He shuffled back and forth between the infield and outfield, but the comments were all the same.

Best first base defender since a certain three-time NL Gold Glove Award winner named Helton.

Based on some metrics, the comparison is apt. Baseball Reference’s dWAR had the 26-year-old at 0.5 last season, a figure that only Helton (0.9 dWAR in 2000) has topped for a Rockies’ first baseman in a single season.

Ultimate Zone Rating and Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average, however, were far less favorable in their evaluation with the latter placing him in the bottom 11th-percentile of defenders.

The Fielding Bible credited both Toglia and Doyle as the team-leaders with 11 defensive runs saved, albeit with nearly 250 less innings for Toglia. For first baseman, only NL Gold Glove Award Finalist Matt Olson of Atlanta had more than Toglia, with over 500 less innings in this instance. 

Considering how Doyle’s defense sparked attention on the national scene before finding ease at the plate to reach the 20/20 milestone, there’s belief Toglia could do the same — if not better — this season.

Some might not be impressed by his 25 home runs, instead opting for a lazy one-word response. “Coors.”

But Toglia hit 17 of those away from Denver. His 15.96 AB/HR was the seventh-highest mark in the NL (min. 300 PA), best in Colorado since Nolan Arenado (14.34 AB/HR) during his 41 homer campaign in 2019.

If that’s not enough to convert you into a believer, Statcast has him at the 90th-percentile or better in xwOBA (.358), Average Exit Velocity (92.1 mph), Barrel % (17.3) and Hard-Hit % (50.2).

Big Mike. Big Toe. Whatever you want to call him, just know the “G” is silent. Might be important when he begins to make noise in 2025.