Will They Stay Or Go? The Chances Of Every Cubs Free Agent Returning

Last year, the Milwaukee Brewers avoided arbitration by offering Aaron Civale a one-year, $8 million deal. He pitched just five games for the Brewers before playing for the other Chicago team in MLB, the White Sox.

Civale's ERA spiked almost half a run when he switched from the NL Central (4.91) to the AL Central (5.37). The veteran pitcher came to the Cubs where he was used in relief during five different regular-season games. Chicago benefited from him posting a 2.08 ERA on his third team in 2025.

Now 30 years old, Civale could return, but $8 million for another season sounds steep. Perhaps the Cubs can work out a sum more favorable for the team.

Brad Keller, Relief Pitcher [85% chance]

This Snellville, Georgia native pitched 68 games during the regular season for the Cubs. That is the most ever in Brad Keller's career. Just like Civale, he is also 30 years old.

If Keller was willing to return to Chicago and the NL Central for a similar deal, the Cubs bullpen stays sharp with a veteran for less than $2 million in 2026. Keller may want more than one year, so a three-year contract that won't break the bank could be on the table from Chicago.

Caleb Thielbar, Relief Pitcher [5% chance]

One of the oldest players on the roster in 2025, Thielbar will turn 39 before Spring Training. The Cubs may look elsewhere to round out their bullpen, especially if Chicago wants to bring back Keller and/or Civale.

Carlos Santana, First Baseman & Designated Hitter [0% chance]

If it weren't for Santana, Thielbar would be the oldest player on the Cubs roster this past season. The first baseman played for the Cleveland Indians during the 2016 World Series against Chicago, but at 40 years old and with just two hits in 19 at-bats, Santana's tenure with the Cubs will be short and could be over.

Kyle Tucker, Outfielder & Designated Hitter [25% chance]

Not re-signing Thielbar and Santana won't make up for the money Tucker could command in free agency this coming winter. The slugger wasn't consistent for the Cubs, as his better months were at the beginning of the season while he was healthy.

With 133 hits in 2025, Tucker belted a homer on 16.5% of those swings. His 22 home runs and 73 RBIs could have been more had he stayed healthy late in the season, too.

Tucker is more likely to be gone than he is to stick around. A one-year "prove it" deal like Bellinger received two seasons ago may be the route. But that's unlikely with big-spending teams like the Dodgers lurking.

Mike Soroka, Starting Pitcher [50% chance]

Despite only playing in six regular-season games for Chicago, Soroka posted career-bests in both ERA and WHIP (1.08). The former Washington National pitcher is still under 30.

Offering a team-friendly one-year deal could be mutually beneficial. He might not command the $9 million that he got last winter from the Nationals, but the Cubs could offer $5 to $6 million to make it worthwhile for both sides.

Willi Castro, Outfielder and Utility [25% chance]

A third player from the AL Central in 2025, Castro joined the Cubs from the Minnesota Twins. The switch-hitting 28-year-old has a chance to return, and that would increase should Tucker leave the Windy City for another team.

Castro struggled at the plate for the Cubs in his 100 regular-season at-bats. That might hurt his chances of coming back, especially with other young outfielders like Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros having a better batting average than him and looking to break into the team.

Regardless, not all seven of the Cubs players will be on the Opening Day roster for Chicago come next year. At least three or four of them should be though.