Will Tommy Henry Have Another Chance to Prove Himself?

Why Henry might outperform this projection

Henry's projection is significantly more positive than his 2024 numbers. Granted, he never actually had a chance to get into a rhythm in the majors and pitched mostly out of necessity last season.

However, going back an extra year to 2023 shows a different pitcher. Henry pitched to a 4.15 ERA over 17 games, only getting cut short by injury. He looked to be figuring things out before that and posted solid overall numbers.

He has struggled greatly with garnering strikeouts at the major league level and certainly wasn't an effective arm with the D-backs in 2024, but his minor league numbers tell a much different story.

In Triple-A Reno, in an extremely offense-friendly PCL environment, Henry pitched to a 4.25 ERA, with a 10-1 record over 20 starts. He was very consistent. While he didn't go lengthy distances often, he allowed three or fewer earned runs in 13 of those 20 starts.

But most importantly, he recorded 114 strikeouts in 108 innings of work. Considering how difficult it has been for Henry to collect strikeouts at the major league level, it's encouraging to see that ability on display in an offense-heavy place like Reno.

If he's truly unlocked more of a punchout ability, his numbers could jump above projections. While Arizona's rotation is deep enough to theoretically avoid needing to call on Henry to start, anything can happen in baseball, and he could see an opportunity, either as a long reliever or to fill a starting role in the event of a disaster.

If his recent minor league success translates at all to the major league level, he could find a way to prove himself as an MLB-caliber arm, but it will be difficult.

Why Henry might underperform these projections

Simply put, it doesn't seem likely that Henry can have success at the major league level right now.

His four-seam fastball dipped below 90 MPH in 2024, and while he relies on the downward movement of most of his arsenal, none of his secondary pitches are significantly above average in that department. In fact, most of them are below average.

However, the young lefty began incorporating a sinker into his arsenal in 2024. He hasn't used it enough to give an idea of whether that will be a successful pitch, but it could pave the way to Henry becoming a more proficient ground-ball pitcher.

But the truth is, his stuff simply doesn't do enough to succeed at the major league level, at least not right now. If his command was better, it would be a different story, but his high 9.9% walk rate and 1.75 WHIP are a major concern.

Even in Triple-A, his 114 strikeouts were up against 54 walks. Even with his relatively successful results, he posted a 1.51 WHIP against minor-league hitters.

Considering he never quite found any success in the majors last season, this year could be do-or-die for the lefty, and unless significant improvements are made in command, movement, and velocity, Henry will likely see poorer results than these generous projections expect.

Summary

For right now, Henry seems to be stuck in a minor league depth role. He's likely behind some of his Reno teammates with regard to getting a major league call-up in 2025, but could see a handful of innings.

On the whole, it seems very unlikely that Henry's modest stuff and poor zone command can afford him an above-average ERA, as he is projected.

But with that said, it's been quite some time since he's seen significant major-league action. If he can develop his sinker into his primary fastball and improve his command, there's a chance, but it does seem small, and it's doubtful that Henry would be near the front of the line to get called up.

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