Willson Contreras' move to first base was a success

It was less than a year ago that the Cardinals made the decision to move three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to first base after the veteran slugger indicated he wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade clause to leave St. Louis ahead of their impending rebuild. That decision was intended to open up the catcher position so that younger players more tied to the future of the franchise, like Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, could get reps at the position and prove themselves capable as regulars in the majors.

Getting opportunities for those young players was a sensible goal, but it didn’t come without risk. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at first base would be a big ask for any player, and while Contreras has long been a talented hitter he’s not always been able to produce enough offensively to justify a role as an everyday first baseman. Contreras also had just 11 appearances (three starts) on his resume at the position prior to 2025, the most recent of which had come all the way back in 2019, so learning a new position would place additional challenges on the veteran as he headed into his age-33 season.

At first, the experiment looked like it was poised to be a failure. Contreras came out of the gate ice cold in 2025, with a .145/.198/.237 slash line in his first 82 trips to the plate that was difficult to stomach from a first baseman. A month into the season, more than 65% of respondents to an MLBTR poll regarding Contreras’s future suggested that he would be either a league average hitter or worse in 2025, while just 34% of respondents believed Contreras would be able to rebound to his typical numbers. Fortunately for St. Louis, Contreras managed to overcome expectations and do just that. Flash forward to the end of the season, and Contreras is now coming off a solid .257/.344/.447 campaign. His 124 wRC+ this year is right in line with his career mark of 122 and only slightly below the 129 he’s posted to this point in his Cardinals career.

While that rebound from Contreras is certainly encouraging, a 124 wRC+ from first base isn’t exactly the sort of production that one would hope for. Among baseball’s 25 qualified first baseman, Contreras ranked just 12th by wRC+ and actually wound up tied with teammate Alec Burleson, who is entering arbitration for the first time this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Burleson for a salary of just $3.5MM in 2025, a figure that comes in well below the $36.5MM Contreras is owed over the next two years. Given that they can get similar production for much less money in-house, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals were hoping once again to trade Contreras this winter. For his part, Contreras has stated he prefers to remain in St. Louis but will at least consider waiving his no-trade clause this winter.

While Contreras’s production this year might not be commensurate with his salary now that he’s a first baseman, that doesn’t mean there’s no room for optimism. In fact, there’s plenty of positive signs in Contreras’s performance that leave the door wide open for him to deliver at a high level offensively in the coming years. From May 1 onward, Contreras hit a much more robust .268/.357/.480 with a wRC+ of 136. That’s good for the fifth-highest wRC+ in baseball among first basemen during that period, behind only Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Matt Olson, and Michael Busch.

Many players would look a great deal more impressive if you ignored their worst month of the year, of course, but Contreras’s underlying numbers reveal reason for further optimism. The veteran’s .369 xwOBA this season is more or less in line with his numbers since his offensive breakout season in 2022, and a near perfect match for the .370 wOBA he posted in 2024. That performance came with a wRC+ of 141, and there’s at least some reason to believe he could match that performance again in the future.

Contreras’s 13.8% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate this year were both career highs despite a .190 ISO that was one of the weakest of his career. That drop in ISO and walk rate that dropped to just 7.8% this year were the weakest parts of Contreras’s profile as a hitter this season, and a look at this swing decisions this year reveals the cause of that flaw. Contreras’s contact rate spiked to 73.6% this year, the highest its been since 2018. That’s not a bad thing in isolation, but digging a little deeper reveals that almost all of that improvement came on pitches outside of the strike zone, while he actually swung at pitches inside the zone far less often than he had in the past. Contreras took a swing at just 65.7% of pitches in the strike zone this year, a nearly four-point drop from the previous three seasons.

With Contreras’s impressive underlying power metrics this year, it’s certainly possible that being more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone could allow him to access more of that power in games than he did this year. Even if that adjustment doesn’t come, however, one major feather in Contreras’s cap is his work with the glove at first base this year. Despite learning the position on the fly this past winter, the veteran posted +6 Outs Above Average this season. Just three first basemen (Olson, Ty France, and Carlos Santana) beat that mark this season, and it stands to reason that Contreras could build on his performance next year now that he has more experience under his belt.

Whether Contreras ultimately ends up finishing out his contract with the Cardinals in St. Louis or getting traded at some point over the next two seasons, it’s hard to view the contract as anything other than a success for the club. In the first four seasons of his five year deal with the organization, Contreras has hit .261/.358/.459 (129 wRC+) with 8.2 fWAR and 8.9 bWAR in 344 games for the Cardinals despite injuries and multiple moves off of his natural position. While the incoming ABS challenge system next year and the lack of catching depth around the league could make the idea of Contreras moving back behind the plate appealing for some potential suitors on the trade market, Contreras proved himself to be a quality first baseman in 2025 and should be able to provide value in that role regardless of if he does so in St. Louis or elsewhere.