Sep 15, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) looks on against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Yankees' Aaron Judge Gets Concerning MVP Forecast

Originally posted on New York Yankees on SI
By Jack Markowski | Last updated Sep 19, 2025 4:00 PM ET

With just over a week remaining in the regular season, MLB executives are still split on who the American League MVP favorite is between New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and Seattle Mariners catch Cal Raleigh.

There are compelling cases to be made for both, but among the 14 front office members polled by MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, seven voted in favor of Raleigh and six were in support of Judge while one individual deemed the race a tie at the moment.

“Had Judge continued the Bonds-like start he got off to, I might think differently,” an AL executive told Feinsand. “But as is, I’d go with the all-around monster year from the guy playing the most demanding position on the field.”

Strictly based on offensive numbers, there's little argument to be made for Raleigh over Judge. The latter leads the league in batting average (.328), on-base percentage (.453) and slugging percentage (.676) while also having 48 home runs and 104 RBIs to his name.

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Though Raleigh leads the league with 56 homers, which is an all-time high for a catcher as well as a switch-hitter, his .944 OPS is nearly 200 points lower than Judge's, whose counting stats aren't quite as gaudy as the former's due to the fact that he's played in seven less games and has been nursing a flexor strain in his elbow.

“Holy cow, that’s a tough call; I’m actually glad I don’t have a vote,” one NL executive said. “I would lean towards Judge because I think he’s had the better overall season in terms of quality of performance. The home run total and positional advantage would go to Raleigh, but outside of that, I think you can put Judge ahead across the board. And as weird as it might sound, I actually think the Yankees would miss him more than the Mariners would miss Raleigh. I can’t believe I’m saying that, but I think Judge is that important to them.”

Raleigh brings more positional value as a catcher, which is a major factor that is working in his favor. The Platinum Glove winner in 2024, he has been worth 10.1 framing runs with a Statcast Fielding Run Value of six this season according to FanGraphs.

Judge is a strong defender himself, as he's posted two Outs Above Average in right field, though playing a corner outfield position inherently makes him less valuable from a metrics standpoint.

“Judge is on another level,” an AL executive who sided with Raleigh said. “I just think the competitive advantage of a catcher producing at that elite level is so big. Plus, he’s a great defender and he catches maybe the best stuff in the game.”

This is one of the closest MVP races in recent memory, and for good reason. Judge, a two-time winner of the award, is inarguably the best hitter in the game and perhaps one of the best of all-time, at least at his peak, while Raleigh is accomplishing things no other catcher ever has.

Ultimately, the votes will come down to whether or not the Yankees captain's overall offensive dominance is valued over what Raleigh brings to the table behind the plate combined with his league-leading homer.

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