Sep 9, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) follows through on a solo home run against the Detroit Tigers during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Yankees' Aaron Judge's MVP Chances Fading?

Originally posted on New York Yankees on SI
By Michael Rosenstein | Last updated Sep 12, 2025 7:00 AM ET

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge has 17 games to prove he deserves to be named American League MVP for the second year in a row and third time in four seasons.

But it's not a done deal as Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh continues his breakout season.

The 28-year-old Raleigh leads the majors with a career-high 53 home runs while Judge, 33, leads in several categories, including batting average (.322), on-base percentage (.443), slugging percentage (.669), OPS (1.112) and WAR (7.5).

ESPN's Bradford Doolittle updated his picks for MLB's end-of-season awards. What he had to say about AL MVP was quite compelling.

"It shouldn't be controversial to suggest that Judge has had the better offensive season despite Raleigh's historic home run pace and league-leading RBI total," Doolittle noted.

"Raleigh has played in more games, but Judge has still created 31 more runs while using 68 fewer outs. Judge also leads AL hitters in both win probability added and championship probability added," Doolittle continued.

"After that, a number of factors tilt toward Raleigh. As a catcher, Raleigh plays a more valuable defensive position and has played it very well. FanGraphs ranks him as the fourth-most valuable defender in the AL," Doolittle continued.

"Raleigh might be having the best season a catcher has ever had," Doolittle wrote. "He already has crushed the single-season record for home runs by a backstop and is on the cusp of passing the record for switch-hitters set 64 years ago by Mickey-freaking-Mantle. If that happens, and if Raleigh gets to 60 homers -- as a catcher -- and does so on a playoff team, how does he not win MVP?"

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Doolittle's final prediction won't sit well with Yankees fans.

"Raleigh breaks Mantle's record, doesn't reach 60 homers, but keeps his numbers just strong enough to fend off Judge at the finish line," Doolittle concluded.

If Judge holds off Raleigh this year and win his third MVP, the Captain will take his place among some of the Yankees' all-time bests. The only other players to win three MVPs in pinstripes are Yogi Berra, Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle.

Speaking of Mantle, he and Raleigh are the only switch-hitters in MLB history with 50-home run seasons. It seems to be a matter of tie before Raleigh ties and surpasses Mantle's 54 home runs he hit in 1961.

It's worth noting that Mantle's feat did not land him the MVP that year. Instead, it went to teammate Roger Maris, who broke Babe Ruth's single-season home run record by going deep 61 times in 1961.

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