Yankees Facing $180 Million Cody Bellinger Decision After News on Friday

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Josh Valdez | Last updated Oct 10, 2025 12:53 PM ET

The New York Yankees were never going to find a one-to-one replacement for three-time All-MLB First Teamer Juan Soto after he left for the New York Mets last offseason, but they tried to "recreate him in the aggregate."

The saying was popularized in the 2011 film "Moneyball," which chronicled Athletics manager Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt) rebuilding the team with a small buget in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It means replacing one player's production by combining the production of multiple other players, and acquiring outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger from the Chicago Cubs was a part of that equation for the Yankees.

New York has a bigger budget than the Athletics did, as it had the third-highest payroll in baseball entering the 2025 season, via USA Today. Meanwhile, the Athletics had the second-lowest payroll in 2001 for example, via The Baseball Cube. Still, acquiring accomplished veterans like Bellinger, starting pitcher Max Fried, and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt helped soften the blow of losing Soto. The strategy worked in the regular season, as those three players combined for a 10.7 wins above replacement (WAR) against Soto's 7.9 mark with the Yankees in 2024.

However, New York must open its checkbook to retain Bellinger this offseason, via Spotrac.

New York Yankees center fielder Cody Bellinger (35)© Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The former NL MVP will opt out of his $25 million player option and hit unrestricted free agency, via ESPN's Jorge Castillo. Spotrac projects his next contract will be valued at $182.7 million over six years with a $30.4 million average annual value (AAV).

That's a $5.4 million higher AAV than the Yankees would've paid Bellinger on his player option as well as $2.5 million more than it paid him in 2025. The club must decide if it wants to make that commitment to the 30-year-old given that fellow outfielder Trent Grisham is also hitting free agency while 22-year-old Jasson Dominguez will make just $820,000 in pre-arbitration next year, via Spotrac.

New York could save money by re-sigining Grisham and starting Dominguez, as Grisham has a market value of $48.2 million over four years with a $12.1 million AAV, via Spotrac.

Cody Bellinger plans to opt out of his contract and become a free agent this winter, per @jorgecastillo

Following the Yankees' ALDS loss, Bellinger said he'd "absolutely" welcome the opportunity to return to the Bronx pic.twitter.com/95KpM3e1sR
— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) October 10, 2025

Cody Bellinger is Safer Investment Than Trent Grisham

While Bellinger is two years older and projected to be over twice as expensive per year as Grisham, he also has a better track record. The two-time All-Star has notched at least a .751 OPS in each of the last three seasons while Grisham passed that mark for the first time in 2025. Additionally, the latter player recorded a sub-.200 batting average each year from 2022 to 2024, while Bellinger only did so in 2021.

Free agency offically begins the day after the World Series concludes, via Twins Daily.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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