Yankees Rookie Will Warren Blossoming Into True Starter

After a disastrous Spring Training that saw them lose two starters, the New York Yankees didn’t expect a competitive rotation. Having brought in a shaky veteran in Carlos Carrasco and an unproven rookie in Will Warren to back the starting rotation, New York lost many games in the early going thanks to poor performances from their starters. Marcus Stroman, Carrasco, and Warren were all performing poorly, with only Max Fried and Carlos Rodon putting up consistently solid outings.

However, despite struggling throughout April, Warren appears to be finding his groove for the first time in the major leagues. Called up to the Yankees on multiple occasions last season, the 25-year-old wasn’t able to find any success, posting a 10.32 ERA and 0-3 record over 6 games (5 starts). Now, though, Warren seems to be finally becoming the starter that the Yankees imagined he could be when they drafted him in 2021.

The Stuff

Though Warren’s outings were downright disastrous last season, there was never a doubt that he had great stuff. Throwing a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, sweeper, and curveball, his pitches have always had a tremendous amount of bite, particularly his breaking pitches. With a sweeper exceeding 3000 RPM (rotations per minute) according to Baseball Savant, he has always been able to rack up strikeouts if he was able to effectively sequence his breaking stuff.

Though his stuff has always been wicked, he’s made some adjustments this season that have made his breaking pitches even more effective. Instead of focusing on pitching out and away to righties, this year he has been burying more of his pitches down or down and away, particularly the curveball and sweeper. This has, in turn, made his other pitches more effective by expanding the zone down and outside, tying hitters up when he proceeds to go high or inside with the fastball or changeup.

Backing the Fastball

Warren’s fastball has undoubtedly been his most consistent pitch so far as a major leaguer. Last season, opponents hit .074 off it, and just .164 this season. The trouble last year came for him mostly through his sinker and changeup, both of which he generally threw in the same location. Now, though, he has made adjustments to how he locates both of them, throwing the changeup more inside than down (which is a lot less dangerous if it ends up being a hanger) and pinning the sinker all around the zone, rather than mainly aiming inside on righties.

No pitcher is effective with just one or two pitches, which is a big reason why Warren struggled so mightily last season, not to mention that it was his first stint in the majors. Having had time to make those adjustments and get a groove for sequencing his pitches, it’s no wonder that his changes have visibly begun to pay off.

Paying Dividends

Warren has gone from being overly predictable to striking out 29.7% of batters in a relatively short time span. Over 10 starts thus far, he has a 3-2 record with a 4.05 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 46 2/3 innings. However, his recent outings have been much better than his ledger shows: in his 3 most recent starts, he’s pitched 18 innings, striking out 26 and giving up just 3 earned runs.

Under scrutiny for quite some time from fans for underperforming, Warren finally seems to understand how to pitch in the majors. The potential was always there, even if the stats didn’t show it, and now he’s proving his worth as a true MLB-caliber starter. With Clarke Schmidt back from injury, this Yankees rotation doesn’t look so depleted after all. If Warren continues to improve, or at least be a serviceable starter, the Yanks’ rotation could become elite when Luis Gil returns sometime in the summer.