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Feb 13, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) throws a bullpen session during spring training practices at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Yankees Stock Rises After Gerrit Cole's 2026 Debut

Originally posted on New York Yankees on SI
By Joseph Randazzo | Last updated Mar 19, 2026 9:00 AM ET

The New York Yankees never committed to a solid timeline with Gerrit Cole. The vibe around the team was that they might expect him back in the rotation sometime in the late Spring and early summer. The plan was to keep expectations low and play it safe, which is why, when Cole was announced to start, it was a pleasant surprise. Even if it was just for one inning, it feels like Cole is where starters were toward the end of February, and there's a light at the end of the tunnel now.

In his initial start against the Red Sox, Cole didn't render any swings-and-misses, but the fact that he was even on the mound was a better finish to the Spring than anybody could have guessed. The biggest positive in that start was Cole's velocity. He averaged 97.1 MPH on his fastball in his one inning of work. For his injury-shortened 2024 season, he averaged 95.9 MPH, and he was a full mile per hour up from that.

The last time Cole averaged over 97 miles per hour on his fastball was back in 2021 and 2022. He sat 97.7 in 2021 and 97.8 in 2022. The year he won the Cy Young, his velocity was down to 96.7. Even still, Cole, a master of his craft, had one of his best seasons in the big leagues with a heater that was down by his standards, and he ended up winning some hardware that year. The big question fans can dream on is what Cole can achieve now, in his mid-30s, with his heater back to where it once was?

Another positive from that start against Boston wasn't just the uptick in fastball velocity and the simple fact that he was even able to start. It was that Cole also saw a jump in velo on his knuckle curve and slider. He averaged 84.1 MPH on the knuckle curve. That's up from 82.5 in 2024. Then, on his slider, he averaged 90.2 MPH on it. He sat at 88.3 when he was healthy last.

Gerrit Cole’s new windup looks fluid. pic.twitter.com/lreGqDlCIf
— Yankeesource (@YankeeSource) March 18, 2026

An Earlier Timetable?

If there were betting odds on who would come back first between him and Carlos Rodon , Rodon may have been the overwhelming favorite, but now, that could be changing. Rodon hasn't started yet. Manager Aaron Boone doesn't expect one for him by the time Spring Training ends, but he still envisions he'll be back sometime in April.

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

It'll be interesting to see what kind of ramp-up Rodon ends up getting within the next month, but Cole coming back before him, or at least around the same time, would be the kind of positive injury update they usually don't have at this time of year. In seasons past, they would treat the world to some surprising injury news with an unknown timetable for the player's return.

Expectations

Coming into Cole's age-35 season, and with a lengthy layoff behind him, Steamer projected Cole to pitch 134 innings with a 3.95 ERA and 4 FIP. They also projected him to accumulate a 2-WAR, according to Fangraphs. That seemed like a fair expectation for fans and media pundits alike, but Cole may have raised his expectations in that start against Boston.

With those initial projections, that was already a huge positive, even though it wasn't indicative of Cole at the height of his powers. It would have been good to get him on the mound, and then, the big hope would be that he's back to his old self by the postseason.

It was just one inning of work, but he was already a full mile per hour up in velocity from, not just where he's been, but also in his career. Cole has averaged 96.8 MPH since they started collecting that data in 2015. Then there's the fact that he was healthy. The next step will be seeing how he bounces back over the week, and if he checks that box off, he should be starting in games down in Scranton sooner rather than later.

When Cole returned in 2024, he had a 3.41 ERA in 95 innings. If all goes well, he should get those projected Steamer innings, but also an ERA around where he was when he came back the season the Yankees won the pennant, or even lower.

It's one step at a time for Cole's return. The Yankees still haven't given an official timetable, but the ace is getting closer to his return.

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This article first appeared on New York Yankees on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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