Yankees vs. Red Sox: Wild Card Series Preview

Starting Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Garrett Crochet vs. Max Fried

• Crochet: 32 GS, 205.1 IP, 2.59 ERA, 255 K, 5.8 fWAR
• Fried: 32 GS, 195.1 IP, 2.86 ERA, 189 K, 4.8 fWAR

Game 1 could be the difference maker in this series. For Boston, it feels like a must win if they want to pull off this upset. For New York, if they can steal a game against one of the best pitchers in the sport, it could completely deflate the Red Sox’s hopes heading into Game 2.

Crochet was simply phenomenal this season and will likely finish as the runner up to Tarik Skubal in AL Cy Young voting. Across 205.1 innings (second most in MLB, most in the AL), Crochet led MLB in strikeouts (255) and threw to the sixth-lowest ERA in MLB (2.59). Simply put, he is a bona fied workhorse.

Crochet has made four starts this season against the Yankees, and in those 27.1 innings, he struck out 39 while walking just four and pitched to a 3.29 ERA with a WHIP under 0.90. In a short series like this, having the best pitcher in the series is such a significant advantage.

Max Fried won’t make it easy on Boston’s bats, though.

Fried has been solid against Boston this season. In his three starts (18.1 IP), he threw to an ERA under 2.00 and had 22 strikeouts to seven walks. Moreover, he was throwing like an AL Cy Young candidate before a bumpy few outings in July and August. He turned things around at the right time, however.

In his last six starts, Fried pitched to the tune of a 1.55 ERA in 46.1 innings while striking out 48 and walking 14. In Yankee Stadium this season, Fried is rocking an ERA of 2.37 with a 1.05 WHIP.

The Red Sox have the starting pitching advantage, but we’ve seen how dominant Fried can be when he’s on his game. This is going to be one heck of a pitcher’s duel.

Advantage: Red Sox

Game 2: Brayan Bello vs. Carlos Rodón

• Bello: 28 GS, 166.2 IP, 3.35 ERA, 124 K, 1.9 fWAR
• Rodón: 33 GS, 195.1 IP, 3.09 ERA, 203 K, 3.2 fWAR

26-year-old Brayan Bello put together the best year of his young career, throwing to a career-low 3.35 ERA across 28 starts. The strikeout numbers weren’t quite were they were at in previous seasons, posting a career-low 6.70 strikeouts per nine, but the step forward in run prevention was quite encouraging.

It won’t be an easy spot for Bello, who will be making his postseason debut in Yankee Stadium while going up against a top-notch arm in Carlos Rodón. But Bello held his own against the Yankees this season with a 1.89 ERA across 19 innings (three starts), and he was actually better on the road this season than he was at home. This will certainly be the tallest task of his young career to this point.

But the Yankees will have the starting pitching advantage in this one with Rodón on the bump. He struck out over 200 batters for the second time in his career (first since 2022, 237), while throwing to an ERA of 3.09, which was the eighth-best mark in the AL. It’s no doubt the best version of Rodón since he came to New York back in 2023.

It’s worth noting that Rodón struggled against Boston this season, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) across 15.2 innings. He struck out just 12 while walking 10 to go with a WHIP north of 1.30 across his three starts against the Red Sox.

Still, he has experience pitching in the postseason, and he’s thrown the ball well in the month of September.

Advantage: Yankees

Game 3 (If Needed): TBD vs. Cam Schlittler

• Schlittler: 14 GS, 73.0 IP, 2.96 ERA, 84 K, 1.3 fWAR

There was a major blow to the Red Sox’s pitching plans late in the afternoon on Monday when skipper Alex Cora announced that Lucas Giolito is going to miss the Wild Card round due to an elbow injury.

Giolito was previously in line to be the Game 3 starter for Boston after putting together a really nice bounce-back season from an internal brace procedure that held him out for all of 2024. As a result of his injury, Cora alluded to the young arms who have recently been called upon (Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison) to start in a potential Game 3 but did not make a formal decision beyond Crochet and Bello.

Early has made four MLB starts this season and has dazzled in the small sample, striking out 29 hitters while walking just four in 19.1 innings. He’s throwing to a 2.33 ERA in his four starts.

Harrison, who was acquired in the Rafael Devers trade with the San Francisco Giants, has made just three appearances in a Red Sox uniform (two starts) and has a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings of work with Boston this season.

For the Yankees, Rookie Cam Schlittler burst onto the scene in July and threw the ball as well as any arm in baseball over the final few months of the regular season. Ending the year with an ERA below 3.00, Schlittler was fifth in MLB with a 2.79 ERA since the All-Star break, striking out over 10 hitters per nine over that stretch.

It would be quite the test for Schlittler to take the ball in a Game 3 on this stage, but he may have earned it with how well he has thrown the ball since getting the call. Regardless, the Yankees have the pitching advantage with Giolito no longer available this series.

Advantage: Yankees

Key Storylines To Watch: New York Yankees

Can the Offense Continue Its Momentum?

The Yankees’ biggest strength is their offense bar none. Headlined by Aaron Judge and the MVP-caliber season he is putting together, this is a deep lineup with several players hitting their stride at the right time.

Aaron Judge is carrying a 241 September wRC+ into the playoffs, but can the other names around him in the order help support the offense? They have as of late, and the results speak for themselves.

New York had seven players post a wRC+ of 100 or better in September, including Ben Rice (157), José Caballero (140), and Austin Wells (120).

If those names can continue to swing it while Judge continues to do his thing and other pillars of the offense (Stanton, Bellinger, Chisholm), continue with their strong results, it’s hard to envision the Red Sox competing offensively if this unit continues to swing it the way they have recently.

How Reliable Is the Bullpen?

The Yankees’ bullpen has been a point of conversation for a majority of the season. Yankees relievers head into the postseason with the 23rd-best ERA in baseball at a 4.37. That number is even lower since the All-Star break at 4.78, the fifth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball over that stretch.

Trade deadline acquisition David Bednar has settled into a Yankees uniform, throwing to a 2.19 ERA in his time in New York. He’s emerged as the best closer option, but beyond him things get dicey.

Devin Williams has a 4.79 ERA on the year with an ERA above 5.00 in the second half. It’s worth noting, though, that in his last nine appearances to close out the season, Williams did not allow a run and struck out 12 while walking just two in nine innings of work.

Luke Weaver has been hit or miss this season and carries a 4.40 second-half ERA into the playoffs. Fernando Cruz is nasty when he is on, but he put up an ERA of 6.75 in September. And the other deadline addition, Camilo Doval, sports a subpar 4.82 ERA in a Yankees uniform.

Each of these names have demonstrated an ability to dominate opposing hitters at times, but we have yet to see that come to fruition with any consistency to this point. With the bullpen being the Yankees’ biggest weakness while it being Boston’s greatest strength, it will be fascinating to see the two units paired up against one another.

Key Storylines To Watch: Boston Red Sox

Can the Bullpen Carry Them to Victory?

As was just mentioned, Boston’s bullpen may be key to making a deep postseason run. They come into the playoffs with the second-best bullpen ERA in MLB (3.41), a complete 180 from the state of the Yankees’ bullpen.

The Yankees have the advantage offensively and in the overall starting pitching department, so this is the one area that the Red Sox will need to use to their advantage to steal this series from New York.

No reliever in baseball has a lower ERA than Aroldis Chapman and his 1.17 ERA. Pair that production with Garrett Whitlock and his 2.25 ERA and 11.38 K.9, and it creates a deadly one-two punch that few teams can match.

Boston has the rare combination of bullpen depth to go along with the top-flight talent to close out games. That is such a luxury in October, and their bullpen may be the great equalizer in cooling down New York’s red-hot offense.

Time for the Stars to Step Up

In order for the Red Sox to keep this series competitive, they will need their stars to step up offensively.

In the month of September, Boston is 16th in team wRC+ (99) compared to the Yankees’ mark of 119. While names like Masataka Yoshida, Romy Gonzalez, and Trevor Story have led the way this month, they will need to get better production from the other big names in their lineup to match the Yankees’ firepower.

Ceddanne Rafaela has a wRC+ of 59 since the All-Star break after posting a 115 mark in the first half. Alex Bregman has slowed down as of late, posting a 76 wRC+ in September, which is his lowest month this season. Jarren Duran started to hit his stride in the heart of the summer but has a wRC+ below 90 in September.

The loss of Roman Anthony at the top of the order was such a significant blow for this offense, and Boston’s other big names will need pick up the slack if this team wants to make a run past the Wild Card round.

We’ve seen what this offense can look like when they’re firing on all cylinders, but offensive inconsistency has plagued this team throughout the regular season. Which version of Boston’s bats will we see in the coming days? That is yet to be seen, and the answer may determine how far this team will go in October.

Prediction

Yankees in Three

The Yankees are far from a flawless team, and if the bullpen continues to struggle the way that it has throughout the regular season, Boston could absolutely take advantage in this series. After all, the margin for error in a three-game series is so small, and the Red Sox have the pieces to get the job done.

However, the Yankees have a far deeper starting rotation than Boston in light of Gilito’s injury, and their offense has been much more lethal. While the gap in these two bullpens is quite substantial, I still think the Yankees have enough firepower to get the job done in a three-game series, even with facing Crochet in Game 1.

If the Red Sox’s core offensive pieces can turn things around, then they have a real shot in stealing this series. If not, however, then the Yankees may just have too much firepower for the Red Sox to match.