Yes, Cole Hamels Deserves To Be a Hall of Famer

In Hall of Fame Company

Hamels’ stellar strikeout and walk numbers, along with his impressive workload, were on display throughout his major league career. From 2006-2015, he posted a K/BB above 3.00 in at least 130 innings in each of his first 10 big league seasons. He remains the only pitcher to do so in even nine of his first 10 years, let alone all 10.

He also had at least 140 strikeouts in each of his first 11 seasons. Hamels joins Hall of Famers Don Sutton and Tom Seaver as the only pitchers to do this. He is the only lefty to ever do it, and the only pitcher since the 1980s to accomplish this feat.

On six different occasions, Hamels turned in a season with 200+ innings pitched and an ERA+ of at least 130, meaning he was 30% better than the average pitcher at run prevention. Only 14 other pitchers, including 10 Hall of Famers, have as many such seasons since integration.

The non-Hall of Famers on that list include Roger Clemens, Justin Verlander, Curt Schilling and Kevin Brown. That’s a future Hall of Famer and three who were left out due to off-the-field issues.

If you stretch that stat to include 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, Hamels joins Clemens, Verlander and Randy Johnson as the only pitchers ever with at least six such seasons.

This covers several different aspects of pitching. Workload, run prevention and strikeouts. Hamels’ consistent ability to succeed at all three puts him in the same conversation as three clear-cut Hall of Fame talents – not just fringe Hall of Famers, but those in the inner circle.

While this only covers a portion of his big league career, it puts in perspective how good he was at his peak, even if you may not have seen it that way.

From 2007-2016, Hamels ranked fifth among all pitchers in fWAR with 42.6 over that 10-year span. The only pitchers who ranked above him were Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernández and Zack Greinke – all considered to be among the best pitchers of that generation.

Overall, he is one of just 10 pitchers with an ERA+ above 120 and K/9 above 8.0 in at least 2,500 career innings pitched. And, yes. It’s an impressive list to be on

It’s Hall of Fame-worthy pitchers across the board, and Hamels is right there with them.

Postseason Hero

Hamels is one of just 32 pitchers to ever pitch over 100 career innings in the postseason. In doing so, he logged a 3.41 ERA and 3.69 FIP. His postseason career is most defined by his 2.77 ERA in 13 innings during the 2008 World Series, a performance that earned him World Series MVP honors.

Before that World Series, Hamels pitched to a 1.93 ERA in his 14 NLCS innings, also winning him NLCS MVP. He became just the third pitcher to win LCS and World Series MVP in the same year.

Throughout that postseason, Hamels pitched at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs in each of his five starts. He sported a 1.80 ERA and 2.93 FIP throughout his 35 innings that October, pitching Philadelphia to its first title in 28 years.

Among the aforementioned 32 pitchers to throw at least 100 career postseason innings, Hamels ranks 20th in career ERA, 8th in WHIP (1.096), and 11th in K/BB (3.44).

Throughout his postseason career, Hamels tallied 10 games with six or more innings pitched and two or fewer earned runs allowed. He is one of just 18 pitchers with a double-digit number of such games in the postseason.

The Precedent

Historically, writers have overlooked the Hall of Fame cases of those similar to Hamels. He is one of 14 pitchers with 2,500-3,000 career innings and an ERA+ between 120-125. Of those 14, the only ones in the Hall of Fame are Dazzy Vance and Lefty Gomez – the latter of whom was elected by a veterans committee rather than the BBWAA.

Hamels is also one of just four pitchers with between 2,500-3,000 innings and a bWAR between 55-60. None of the other three are in the Hall of Fame, but they represent some of the most overlooked cases for pitchers throughout history.

Urban Shocker, Bret Saberhagen and Dave Stieb are the other three pitchers in that category. None of them ever received more than 1.5% of the vote on a BBWAA ballot. Last year, I wrote about how the writers are quietly changing the tune of some of their historical precedents. If this trend continues, there is hope that Hamels can break an old trend.

If Hamels gets just 5% of the vote this year, enough to stay on the ballot and force a second year of consideration, he will already be pushing the boundaries that the writers have previously allowed for pitchers with his stats.

Hamels’ road to Cooperstown will come with many hurdles. After this election cycle, it will likely seem as though his case isn’t a popular one with the writers. But Hall of Famers Scott Rolen and Billy Wagner debuted on the ballot with 10.2% and 10.5% of the vote, respectively. Likely future Hall of Famer Andruw Jones debuted at 7.3%.

All it takes is for Hamels to attain that 5% for there to be hope beyond this year. And no matter what, this is a case that deserves the time of day.