Yimi García’s looming return may force Blue Jays’ hand on struggling Chad Green

A decision on Chad Green’s future may soon be required.

When the Toronto Blue Jays take the field at Fenway Park on Friday, they’ll officially reach the halfway point of the 2025 season in Game 81 against the Boston Red Sox. By all accounts, the bullpen has arguably been this team’s biggest strength in the first half, and that’s despite having to overcome multiple injuries and a few disappointing performances — most notably Green’s.

We’re nearly three months into this season, and yet, the struggling 34-year-old still isn’t any closer to breaking out of his prolonged woes. The results have been a complete trainwreck thus far, as the right-hander carries a 4.24 ERA through 35 appearances, allowing the most home runs in the majors (10) while producing the second-highest FIP (6.07) of 181 qualified relievers — trailing only former Blue Jay Trent Thornton (6.36).

All in all, Green has been a below-replacement-level relief pitcher worth minus-0.6 fWAR — tied with Tampa Bay’s Edwin Uceta for second-worst in the majors, ahead of only Thornton (-0.8).

If you followed Green’s 2024 performance, then these struggles probably aren’t all that surprising to you. During the dark days of last season, with Jordan Romano (injured) and Yimi García (traded) unavailable, the longtime New York Yankees setup man took over the closer’s role down the stretch and ended up finishing with a career-high 17 saves to the tune of a 3.21 ERA in 53 games — his most post-Tommy John surgery.

Based on his underlying metrics, though, the veteran reliever probably shouldn’t have fared as well as he did on the surface, considering his 4.29 FIP was a full run higher than his ERA. And we’re seeing the effects of that regression play out this season, albeit to a much larger extent, as a result of his worsening ability to minimize hard contact.

There isn’t a reliever in the majors who’s been barrelled up more than Green, whose 16.5-per-cent barrel rate against ranks in the first percentile in the majors and last among qualified relief pitchers. He also features a 49.5-per-cent hard-hit rate against — also a career-worst — that resides in the fifth percentile of the sport.

Adding to Green’s woes, his strikeout rate has plummeted to 20.4 per cent, the lowest of his 10-year major league career. Meanwhile, his 24.8-per-cent whiff rate sits in the 48th percentile after falling to the 32nd in ’24.

There’s nothing worse than a reliever who struggles to miss barrels and generate swing-and-miss, particularly one in the final season of a three-year, $23.25-million contract — earning $10.5 million this season. So, where do the Blue Jays go from here?

They already parted ways with Erik Swanson earlier this month, proving the organization isn’t afraid to act aggressively and make tough decisions when needed. As García — scheduled to pitch for triple-A Buffalo on Sunday — inches closer to returning from injury, management may have no choice but to make another with Green soon.