Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida Prediction, Odds: UFC 321 Pick

Read for an Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida prediction for UFC 321 on Saturday, October 25, with my betting pick and prediction.

Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida Odds

Here’s my Volkov vs. Almeida pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Volkov vs. Almeida Pick, Prediction

This Heavyweight bout is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup: Jailton Almeida has spent 89% of his UFC time grappling, controlling 94% of those exchanges, whereas Alexandr Volkov has spent 70% of his time at striking distance, and only controlled 30% of his grappling and clinch time.

The distance striking differential isn’t nearly as wide on paper (+2.8 per minute for Volkov, +1.4 for Almeida) as it would look in a pure kickboxing match; however, Almeida has a powerful body kick and throws heavy hands, but his technique is minimal, whereas Volkov is one of the best volume boxers in the division.

Volkov would be wise to avoid his teep kicks in this fight – as Almeida could turn a caught kick into a takedown  He’s shown proactive wrestling – averaging just under 35 takedown attemps (60% completion rate; 27 of 45) per five minutes at distance, and while Volkov’s takedown defense has improved (74% career) he’s shown significant vulnerability off of his back.

Still, Alemida generally needs to get to the back of his opponents to finish fights; and if Volkov can survive on his back in Round 1, he could have opportunites to rally and close the show late; Almeida doesn’t have excellent cardio, and seems extremely chinny, too; his knockout loss to Curtis Blaydes – from top position – was a bad look.

It’s worth noting that Volkov is among the biggest Heavyweights in the division, whereas Almeida came into the promotion as a Light Heavyweight; Drago may have a decisive physicality advantage.

I don’t project pre-fight value on the side or the total for this matchup, but would consider placing a Same-Game Parlay (SGP) with Volkov and the Over 1.5 Rounds (+300) or would take a poke at his odds to win in Round 2 (+1000) or Round 3 (+1300) while waiting for a live entry.

Projection: Almeida (65.1%)

Sean’s Picks:

• SGP Alexander Volkov & Over 1.5 Rounds (+295, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +275
• Alexander Volkov wins in Round 2 (+850, 0.05u) at ESPNBet; bet to +550
• Alexander Volkov wins in Round 3 (+1400, 0.05u) at Fanatics; bet to +1000
• Alexander Volkov Live after Round 1