Ilia Topuria’s Biggest Threat at UFC 317 May Be Overlooked

Oliveira has historically used the Muay Thai clinch to drain opponents’ stamina, land knees, and create openings for takedowns, as seen in his wins over Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier. If he can corner Topuria and control the tie-ups, he might expose a hidden vulnerability in the undefeated phenom’s game.

Topuria’s meteoric rise has been built on crisp boxing and defensive grappling, but his fights have rarely ventured into prolonged clinch exchanges. Against Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway—both fighters who preferred pocket boxing or fighting on the outside—Topuria dominated at those distances.

Oliveira, however, is a long-limbed pressure fighter who thrives in the clinch, using his reach to lock up opponents and sap their energy with knees and elbows.

If Topuria can’t disengage quickly, Oliveira could turn the fight into a grueling attrition battle, neutralizing the Spaniard’s explosive power.

Oliveira’s chin is a liability, but his clinch could be the perfect antidote to Topuria’s precision. By smothering Topuria’s punches and forcing dirty boxing exchanges, Oliveira could limit the space for clean shots while wearing down the younger, more explosive Topuria.

Topuria’s Greco-Roman wrestling base might help at this range, but Oliveira’s creativity in filling the empty space with a short elbow or well-placed knee is a very real threat. A perfectly timed elbow could also re-open the scar on Topuria’s eye, which was spotted in a recent interview with Ariel Helwani.

The clinch also opens paths to submissions, which is undoubtedly Oliveira’s deadliest weapon. He has mastered transitions that turn clinch positions like collar ties and over-under positions into body locks that lead to back takes, takedowns, or guillotine attempts.

However, executing this game plan won’t be easy. Topuria’s footwork and angles have allowed him to dictate range against elite strikers, and Oliveira’s tendency to brawl recklessly early could play into his hands. If Topuria stuffs the clinch attempts and forces Oliveira to trade at mid-range, his superior boxing and speed might lead to another brutal knockout.

To top it off, Topuria has supreme confidence. In that same interview on Uncrowned, Topuria said, “I’m going to finish him in the first round... With Charles, I’m not going to need to close the distance because he walks forward, and this is all I need to take his lights out.” 

An Oliveira win would cement his legacy as the first two-time lightweight champ, while Topuria aims to join Conor McGregor as the only UFC fighters to win belts in the perpetually stacked featherweight and lightweight divisions.