Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 318 (Saturday, July 19)

Check out the Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, with my betting preview and breakdown.

The UFC has tried to book the fight between exciting welterweights Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez on three separate occasions dating back to 2020. The first booking was scrapped due to a Holland injury, while the next fight was lost in the shuffle following Khamzat Chimaev’s infamous weight miss at UFC 279 that impacted three bouts.  With Rodriguez now 38 years old, he’s facing an uphill battle, with Holland installed as a large favorite.

Here’s my Holland vs. Rodriguez pick and prediction.

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez Odds

Tale of the Tape

I’ve had some solid results betting on Kevin Holland fights over the last year or so, correctly picking against him in both of his middleweight bouts in that span, and betting on him (or indirectly betting on him) in each of his welterweight contests.

Being able to make money when Kevin Holland fights is an especially lucrative skill, since he’s the most active fighter in the UFC. UFC 318 marks his fourth fight in 2025, and we’re barely halfway through the year.

Unfortunately, the market has largely come around to the concept of “welterweight Kevin Holland” being an entirely different animal than the middleweight version, with his moneyline opening around -400 and rising as high as -550 as we head into fight night.

Which makes sense, considering Holland took welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena to a close split decision, and has won two straight in his most recent stint in the division.

Holland is massive for the 170lbs division, with an 81″ reach that typically gives him a considerable reach edge over his opponents. He uses that well, landing straight shots from the outside while switching to a Muay Thai clinch if opponents close the distance.

That clinch is a dangerous weapon, as opponents have to choose between getting picked apart from the outside or locked into a clinch fight where they’re exposed to the dangerous knees and elbows of “Trailblazer.”

He hurt Anthony Hernandez with a clinch elbow before finishing him with a knee in their 2020 bout, and stunned Alex Oliveira with an elbow despite “Cowboy” having Holland’s back standing.

He’s also a BJJ black belt with five submission victories in the UFC, despite his lack of desire to fight on the ground. Holland has publicly requested matchups with strikers. While he’s had trouble with the grappling attack of larger middleweights, no welterweight opponents have gotten the better of him on the ground.

He should have his preferred style of fight against Rodriguez, who has landed just two takedowns in 13 UFC fights.

“D Rod” prefers to settle things on the feet, where he attempts to overwhelm opponents with his volume and power. He’s landed more than seven significant strikes per minute in the Octagon, and three of his nine UFC wins are via knockout — while his lone submission was a “club and sub” guillotine win following a knockdown.

He’s also 38 years old, and his 3-3 record over his last six fights includes two split decision wins.

Rodriguez has struggled against taller fighters as well, losing inside the distance to only two previous opponents 6’3″ or taller he’s faced in the UFC — Neil Magny and Ian Garry. That’s probably just noise, but I expect the 6’3″ Kevin Holland to pick him apart at distance.

Holland vs. Rodriguez Pick, Prediction

I’m considering two possible bets for this fight.

The first is the somewhat obvious pick of Holland to win inside the distance. He’s a massive moneyline favorite and has finished more than two-thirds of his UFC wins, including five of six at welterweight.

Should he choose to grapple, he would likely be able to submit D-Rod, and a standing knockout is also well within the realm of possibility. Holland’s power is solid at 170lbs, and Rodriguez has accumulated plenty of damage over his career.

The other is a long-shot pick on Rodriguez to win a decision. He’s emerged victorious in multiple close decisions not because of luck, but because his high output plays well to the judges. If this one goes the distance, it’s probably a result of the fight staying standing, where that volume is more impactful.

Rather than put myself in a position where one bet is guaranteed to lose, I’m taking a shot at Rodriguez’s “decision only” moneyline at +250, which gets refunded if the fight ends inside the distance.

I’m risking one unit on Holland by finish at -150, and half a unit on the Rodriguez prop at +250 — both via DraftKings — so either a Holland finish or a Rodriguez decision returns a profit.

Billy’s Picks: Kevin Holland Inside the Distance -150 (1u) | Daniel Rodriguez Decision Only +250 (.5u)