Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 311

Check out the Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder pick for UFC 311 on Saturday, January 18, with my betting preview and breakdown.

The first UFC Pay-Per-View fight of 2025 features the sophomore appearance of former ONE two-division champion Reinier de Ridder against fan-favorite Kevin Holland.

de Ridder was impressive in his promotional debut, but this is a big step up in competition for “The Dutch Knight.” Kevin Holland is looking to get back in the win column after losing via rib injury in October of last year — and prove that the UFC is a step above the competition.

Here’s my Holland vs. de Ridder pick and prediction.

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder Odds

Tale of the Tape

While Reinier de Ridder isn’t a household name for UFC fans, he was a huge free-agent signing for the promotion. Save for a pair of losses (at heavyweight and light heavyweight) to Anatoly Malykhin he’s undefeated as a pro MMA fighter, and held multiple ONE titles simultaneously.

Despite coming from an area known for their striking, the Dutch fighter is an elite grappler. He holds black belts in both Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, starting the former at just six years old. Perhaps the biggest testament to his grappling ability is that his debut opponent Gerald Meerschaert — who has 11 submissions in 12 UFC wins — wanted to strike with RDR rather than engage on the ground.

On the feet, de Ridder has solid power but is extremely awkward. He was getting picked apart by Meerschaert during most of the extended striking exchanges, though he did drop Meerschaert with a straight left followed by an elbow late in the first round.

That could be a problem against Kevin Holland, a far more effective (and powerful) striker than Meerschaert. While de Ridder is new to the UFC, as 34 and with 20 professional fights under his belt, it’s highly unlikely we see major improvements to his striking defense.

To de Ridder’s credit in that area, while he takes a lot of shots, he’s only even been finished by the much larger Malykhin, so I consider him to be relatively durable until proven otherwise.

His Judo background and solid offensive wrestling mean he should be able to get this one to the ground at some point, though, especially against the relatively lackluster takedown defense of Holland.

A natural welterweight, Kevin Holland has struggled with grapplers throughout his career, especially during his stints at 185 lbs. He was taken down 11 times by Marvin Vettori and six times by Derek Brunson in his original run at the weight class, and more recently was dominated on the ground by Roman Dolidze back in October.

Dolidze is a fairly comparable grappler to de Ridder, and he was able to control Holland on the ground for nearly three minutes in their one-round fight, before Holland injured his rib during a scramble near the end of the round.

On the other hand, Holland’s power has mostly played up at middleweight, and he has a bit of height and length on de Ridder. If Holland can win the lead foot battle against his southpaw opponent, he could certainly find a home for his straight right hand.

Holland won’t have much time to do so between takedown attempts, but it wouldn’t be surprising if that’s all he needs.

Holland vs. de Ridder Prediction

Kevin Holland opened as a -148 favorite in this fight at DraftKings, but the market has quickly moved it to roughly a pick ’em. That’s understandable, as this is a fairly binary fight where both man has a clear way to win — as well as a noticeable weakness.

With that said, de Ridder’s varied takedowns should be the difference here. He can ground opponents with wrestling-style shots form the outside or in the clinch with Judo-based trips and throws. Holland has never been especially comfortable against grapplers and has often campaigned for fights against strikers.

Plus, Holland’s last fight was just over three months ago and ended in an injury. While the rib injury didn’t seem especially significant, it was almost certainly serious enough to warrant some time off from training. Not a huge factor, but given the quick turnaround here it could be a factor.

Finally, I was encouraged by de Ridder finding a second wind and finishing Meerschaert late in a close fight in his debut. If he can keep the pressure on through three rounds, he should be able to do the same against a lesser grappler in Holland.

Billy’s Pick: Reinier de Ridder -112 (DraftKings)