Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke prediction, odds, pick for UFC 315

Just before the UFC 315 main card kicks off, Mike Malott (11-2-1) will attempt to defend Canadian soil against Charles Radtke (10-4). It is time to continue our UFC 315 odds series with a Mike Malott-Charles Radtke prediction and pick.

Malott, 33, fights in his home country for the fourth straight occasion. The Ontario native bounced back from his first UFC loss in his last fight, picking up a methodical decision nod over Trevin Giles at UFC Edmonton. Now back on a pay-per-view event, Malott looks to put together another win streak after having his momentum halted by Neil Magny just over one year ago.

Radtke, 34, is also coming off a bounce-back win after knocking out Matthew Semelsberger in less than a minute at UFC Vegas 100. After improving to 3-1 in the Octagon, Radtke shares a fight card with his championship teammate, Belal Muhammad, for the first time in the UFC. Despite entering enemy territory, Radtke is hardly phased by crowd reactions after being portrayed as a villain for most of his career.

Here are the UFC 315 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

UFC 315 Odds: Mike Malott-Charles Radtke Odds

Mike Malott: -166

Charles Radtke: +140

Over 1.5 rounds: -154

Under 1.5 rounds: +120

Why Mike Malott Will Win

Malott is a big welterweight, and Radtke is short for the division, giving the former a notable size advantage. ‘Proper’ has weaponized his size well thus far in the UFC, often overwhelming his opponents with his strength and pressure before finding a submission. Radtke, a wrestler, is used to facing a size disadvantage but has never fought a grappler as big as Malott.

Radtke has never been submitted, which is typically how Malott wins, but the latter showed significant boxing and cardio improvements in his last win over Giles. The patience he showed in that win could be key to picking apart an aggressive fighter like Radtke, who has just three decision wins in his 13-year professional career.

Malott has two knockout losses on his record, which fits right into Radtke’s game plan. However, only one of those defeats came at welterweight in a stunning comeback from Magny. Malott dominated the entire fight before completely gassing out in the third round. Radtke does not have a win in the third round in his career.

Why Charles Radtke Will Win

Despite being one of Belal Muhammad’s main training partners, Radtke’s fight style could not be more different than that of the champion. Although also a wrestler, Radtke packs power in his hands and is never afraid to exchange in the pocket. That got him into trouble against Carlos Prates but also led to two first-round knockouts in his four UFC appearances.

As the smaller fighter, Radtke never lets his opponents get settled. That would suit him well against Malott, who likes to fight fire with fire. In his last fight, Malott exercised much more patience than usual, but Giles never forced him into action. Radtke will not let him simply pop jabs and leg kicks.

Though Radtke was just violently finished two fights ago, Malott’s preferred method of victory is by submission. Radtke has never been submitted in his career and is repeatedly touted by Muhammad as one of the best grapplers he has ever worked with. Those words speak volumes from a part-time member of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s camp. If Radtke can push the pace and weather an early storm, his cardio has historically stood up better in the later rounds. Malott has never faced anyone who will give him as much resistance in grappling exchanges.

Final Mike Malott-Charles Radtke Prediction & Pick

Malott and Radtke both love to chase finishes early while largely refraining from getting put away themselves. Radtke is not long removed from a first-round knockout loss, but Malott is far from Prates’ level as a striker. While Malott was much more patient and timid in his most recent outing than usual, Radtke was not, and will not let the bout become a measured point fight.

Malott has never faced a pressure fighter like Radtke in the UFC, but he has not folded under that type of pressure before. He melted late against Magny, but won every second of that fight until the final frame. Malott’s size gives him a massive edge over Radtke, whose striking is not technical enough to break into boxing range without compromising himself. Their ground skills are fairly even, but Malott is a much crisper boxer with enough size and strength over Radtke to win grappling encounters.

As a fast starter, Malott seems like a candidate to get the party started early with a quick finish to please the crowd. That outcome is within the realm of possibility, but Radtke’s durability has often held up. Malott does not have the same type of craftiness and power as Prates to replicate a similar performance. Radtke will force Malott into action more than Giles did, but the size and striking disparity will be too much for him to overcome on the road.

Final Mike Malott-Charles Radtke Prediction & Pick: Mike Malott by Decision (+300)