Movsar Evloev Is Alexander Volkanovski’s Easiest Opponent Yet

During last week’s UFC 330 broadcast the majority of UFC 333, this year’s major Abu Dhabi event was revealed. Headlining this year’s event is a featherweight title bout between two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski and undefeated Russian challenger Movsar Evloev. 

As Volkanovski has aged, especially since his knockout loss to Ilia Topuria, there seems to be more doubt in the consensus featherweight GOAT. In some cases, there is validity to this doubt. Ever since his knockout loss in October of 2023 to Islam Makhachev his durability has taken a severe blow. This showed when Ilia Topuria rendered him unconscious only four months later. 

After that loss, Volkanovski took a requisite 14 months away from action and has reclaimed his featherweight belt and defended it against Diego Lopes. During those fights, he was hurt on multiple occasions, but what Volkanovski proved is that his technical skills are still second to none. 

Now, in his next title defense, he faces a steep obstacle in one of the most skilled contenders in recent memory in Evloev. The undefeated Russian is one of the most highly technical wrestlers and has rapidly improved his striking ever since. Despite his 10-0 UFC record, what he has still yet to accomplish is a finish of any kind. 

If Volkanovski’s only weakness seems to be his chin, and Evloev doesn’t seem likely to be able to target that weakness, then why are the odds dead even? 

Have we not learned that Volkanovski’s skill should not be doubted? 

MMA is all about matchups and this one is perfect for the champ. 

Why Volkanovski Wins

One of the most prominent pieces of evidence to help explain why Alexander Volkanovski defeated Movsar Evloev is what Volkanovski showed in his first fight with Islam Makhachev. 

During that fight, Volkanovski outlanded Makhachev in significant strikes, knocked him down, and stuffed five out of Makhachev’s nine takedown attempts. Along with that, outside of round four he was not controlled for a significant amount of time, and even when he was he never took significant damage. 

Evloev, while not a carbon copy, is a similar fighter to his fellow countryman, Makhachev. Like Makhachev, Evloev uses his striking as a means to get to his wrestling, but unlike Makhachev, he doesn’t have one-shot knockout power. 

Instead, his striking is more reliant on pressure which Volkanovski fares better against than power. 

Something else that Volkanovski had to deal with against Makhachev was a size disadvantage. To fight Makhachev, Volkanovski had to move up a weight class against a massive lightweight, the same man who is now the welterweight champion. Now he gets to challenge someone his own size, and although an elite wrestler is not the same caliber as Makhachev, and even more importantly, he is nowhere near as strong. 

I struggle to comprehend the thought process that Evloev will be able to control Volkanovski as well or better than a bigger and stronger Makhachev could. As previously mentioned, the only thing that seems to have deteriorated for Volkanovski is his durability. Otherwise, he looks just as good or better than the same man who went back-and-forth with the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. 

It would be crazy to not expect to have his moments on the mat, but Volkanovski is also known for his ability to successfully work on the mat, both from top control and off his back. This should allow for Volkanovski to keep this fight on the feet for the majority if he so chooses. If that ends up being the case he will have a distinct advantage. 

Recently, Volkanovski has spent time training with elite strikers like Mauricio Ruffy to add more creative layers to his offense. This should give Volkanovski an even bigger advantage in the part of MMA he was already better at than Evloev. Unless Evloev is a significantly better wrestler, to the point where he can overcome the natural strength gap between himself and Makhachev, or Volkanovski has declined to a point we haven’t seen yet, this is a fight that Volkanovski should be able to handle.

Early in this fight there should be a lot of back-and-forth struggle as Evloev tries to take the fight to the mat while Volkanovski tries to stay upright. During these exchanges, Volkanovski should be doing more damage and earning more points. 

As the fight goes on, as long as Volkanovski’s cardio holds, it should become even more difficult for Evloev to get this fight to the canvas. This should allow for the champion to be the first to defeat Evloev and continue his second reign over the featherweight division.