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Paddy Pimblett goes against the grain in Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway 3 prediction

Originally posted on Bloody Elbow
By Christopher De Santiago | Last updated Jul 7, 2025 10:15 PM ET

Paddy Pimblett chooses between Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway at UFC 318.

Two of the UFC’s biggest fan-favorites collide for a third time on July 19th in New Orleans. The BMF title is on the line in the main event of UFC 318, a special card built around Poirier’s retirement fight in his home state of Louisiana.

Poirier is up 2-0 against Holloway, having beaten the BMF champion by submission and decision. Poirier spoiled Holloway’s UFC debut in 2012 and his dreams of becoming a two-division champion in 2019.

Coming off the first KO loss of his career against Ilia Topuria at UFC 309, Holloway is hungry to get back into the win column and potentially enter the lightweight title picture against Topuria later this month.

Holloway is a slight betting underdog against Poirier, with Pimblett liking his chances at UFC 318.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Paddy Pimblett thinks ‘motivated’ Max Holloway can pull off upset against Dustin Poirier

There’s no denying what Poirier took from Holloway.

A perfect UFC debut. An interim belt at lightweight and a dream fight with the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov while Holloway was on a 13-fight win streak.

Pimblett doesn’t see Holloway losing with what’s at stake.

“It’d be heavy for Holloway if there’s two different fighters who’ve beat him three times,” Pimblett said on The Verse Us Podcast with Eric Nicksick.

“I’ve seen him say, ‘He took a lot from me. He gave me my first loss, and he took away my win streak. So, I’m gonna take his retirement fight…’

“I think Holloway’s motivated,” Pimblett said of the BMF champion.

“I can see Holloway winning, to be honest. Don’t know why. I think it’s just one of them. Dustin’s fighting in his hometown, his last fight. Everyone expects him to win. The pressure—I think he might [lose].

“You might think it’s a bit more favorable because he beat him twice, though,” Pimblett said of Poirier being the favorite to win.

Dustin Poirier initially wanted Ilia Topuria for retirement fight

When it came to opponents for his last fight at UFC 318, Poirier said it was ‘legends only’.

The former UFC interim lightweight champion didn’t like the sound of a fight with Paddy Pimblett whenever he was still rising through the ranks.

Instead of a trilogy with Holloway, someone he had already beaten twice, Poirier had asked for two other names at lightweight: former BMF champion Justin Gaethje and undisputed champion Ilia Topuria.

Poirier says the UFC didn’t entertain a fight between him and lightweight champion Topuria, two of the division’s best boxers.

“Not once,” Poirier told MMA Junkie’s Mike Bohn.

“When he said he was going to 155, I text Hunter [Campbell]. I text the UFC. I said, hey, what’s up? Let me know what’s going on with this guy now that he’s at 155.