Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 318 (Saturday, July 19)

Check out the Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, with my betting preview and breakdown.

In his sixth UFC fight, Paulo Costa challenged Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title. Now four fights and three losses removed from that unsuccessful bid, he might be fighting for his job. Costa is popular among fans but rapidly fading from relevance, with six cancelled fights and three losses in his last ten booked matchups. That makes him a desperate man against Roman Kopylov, a ranked middleweight looking to crack into the top ten.  Will we get vintage Paulo Costa here, or could this be his last walk to the Octagon?

Here’s my Costa vs. Kopylov pick and prediction.

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov Odds

Tale of the Tape

The good news for Costa is that he made weight for this fight, and barring any fight day drama, the fight should proceed as planned.

Making it to the cage has been a bigger challenge for “The Eraser” than his opponents the last few years, with illness, injuries, and weight misses all contributing to his infrequent appearances.

Those signs also suggest Costa was less than 100% focused following his title challenge. That makes it easy to forget how scary he was early in his UFC run, which started with four straight knockout victories and a decision victory in an absolute war over Yoel Romero.

Costa is a freak athlete who was able to overwhelm lesser opponents with his speed, volume, and power on the feet. That plan has fallen apart against the better technicians he’s fought in recent fights.

His last six opponents have all been either former champions or title challengers, with the only Costa win coming against a well past his prime Luke Rockhold.

This fight against Kopylov is a big step down for Costa in terms of competition, but Kopylov is a solid striker with a Combat Sambo background. He has 55% striking defense in the UFC and has never been knocked out or even down in the UFC.

Kopylov is also a southpaw and holds a three-inch reach advantage, both of which will make it harder for Costa to land at a high rate.

Costa’s typical brawling style would be a bad idea in this matchup, especially considering he needs a win much more than he needs to have another fun fight. Which is why we might see a different tactic from Costa this time around.

While he’s not known for his grappling, the Brazilian is underrated in that department. He’s attempted just four takedowns in his UFC career but landed three of them, all within his last two fights.

Given the size and strength edge he’ll have over Kopylov — who I’m convinced could make welterweight if he had to — bullying Kopylov in close quarters and looking to win rounds from top position is probably the straightest path to victory for Costa.

Kopylov’s takedown defense numbers are also a bit misleading. The vast majority of his UFC fights have been against fellow strikers. Additionally, all three of his losses have been in fights where his opponent landed a takedown.

To frame that differently, Kopylov has never been taken down in a fight and gone on to win it, making the way forward for Costa even more apparent.

Costa vs. Kopylov Pick, Prediction

While it’s hard to trust him at this point, I expect to see a smarter, more disciplined “Borrachina” now that his back is against the wall. At nearly two-to-one odds, I’m willing to take the risk in backing Costa.

As I’ve laid out, I also like his chances to pick up a takedown at some point in this fight, which has odds of +185 at DraftKings.

My initial read was to split two bets on each of those outcomes at big plus money, and hope at least one pays off.

That is, until I experimented with a DraftKings SGP. Combined, those two bets work out to +575 odds. Crunching some numbers on the math, that means those prices only bake in about two percent of positive correlation between Costa landing a takedown and winning the fight.

Clearly, based on Kopylov’s past record, the true correlation is much higher. For that reason, I’m taking a half-unit sprinkle on that SGP at a big price.

Billy’s Pick:Paulo Costa & Costa Over 0.5 Takedowns SGP +575 (DraftKings)