Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez prediction, odds, pick for UFC Iowa

The UFC Iowa Main Card continues to roll as we’re set for another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. UFC veterans will face off as Argentina’s Santiago Ponzinibbio takes on California’s Daniel Rodriguez in a heated showdown. Check the UFC odds series for our Ponzinibbio-Rodriguez prediction and pick.

Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8) comes in with a 12-7 record inside the UFC since 2013. After suffering back-to-back losses recently, he bounced back with a resounding KO win over Carlston Harris in his most recent bout. He’ll hope to break through into the rankings once again with a win here. Ponzinibbio stands six feet tall with a 73-inch reach.

Daniel Rodriguez (18-5) has gone 8-4 inside the UFC since debuting in 2020. He opened his UFC run with a 7-1 record, but promptly dropped three-straight fights following a strong winning streak. He bounced back with a split decision win over Alex Morono most recently and will look to mount another run here. Rodriguez stands 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Iowa Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Iowa Odds: Santiago Ponzinibbio-Daniel Rodriguez Odds

Santiago Ponzinibbio: -110

Daniel Rodriguez: -110

Over 2.5 rounds: -238

Under 2.5 rounds: +180

Why Santiago Ponzinibbio Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Carlston Harris – TKO (standing KO, R3)
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 17 KO/TKO, 6 SUB

Santiago Ponzinibbio went to war his last time out against Carlston Harris, but it was clear by the end of the fight that he was the much fresher athlete and able to pour his striking down in the final minutes of the fight. His opponent was gassed while Ponzinibbio’s cardio became his biggest weapon, scaling his output in the later rounds and really putting the pressure on his opponent. He could stand to see success in this fight if he can manage to pressure Rodriguez the same way he did against Harris.

Ponzinibbio is a veteran in the UFC and has seen countless different stylistic matchups, so this shouldn’t be anything new to him as he’s tasked with another brawler. His chin has held up well after all these years and despite his opponent’s power, he’s not at a massive risk to get knocked out during this fight. Ponzinibbio is very accurate with his striking in the pocket and if he’s able to back Rodriguez against the fence, he’ll be quick to start raining punches down and making it a long night for his opponent.

Why Daniel Rodriguez Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Alex Morono – S DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Through his first eight UFC appearances, not many opponents wanted to face Daniel Rodriguez thanks to his powerful punching and crisp boxing skills. His ability to lull opponents into his own rhythm and then explode into his power punching is something to be feared, while he’s also very technical in hitting his mark. His defense could use some work, but he’s typically good about dishing more damage than he sustains during a fight. If he’s able to land clean on Ponzinibbio, he should be able to drop him and jump in for the finish.

The greatest strength of Daniel Rodriguez is his ability to remain dangerous in the striking pocket and throw hard shots from tight angles. He’s very active with his uppercuts and strikes down the middle, but he’s able to expand strikes with his reach if he’s in close with opponents. His chin has wavered over the last few fights and his cardio will always remain a question, but Rodriguez is certainly the more dangerous knockout artist throughout the opening stages of the bout.

Final Santiago Ponzinibbio-Daniel Rodriguez Prediction & Pick

Both of these fighters have made their rounds throughout the Welterweight Division and after each suffered a short losing streak, they’re aiming to get back on track with a much-needed win. We have to give the knockout upside to Daniel Rodriguez during this fight due to his punching power, but it’ll be interesting to see how he deals with the constant pace and pressure from Ponzinibbio.

We’ve seen Santiago Ponzinibbio become very patient in the striking exchanges over the last few fights and if he’s able to move his head off the center line, he should be able to frustrate Rodriguez with his movement. This fight is likely to become a war of attrition by the later rounds and I expect Ponzinibbio to have the much better gas tank throughout. If it comes down to the later rounds, which the betting lines indicate, I like the activity and cardio of Ponzinibbio to come out on top during this close bout.

Final Santiago Ponzinibbio-Daniel Rodriguez Prediction & Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-110)