Thomas Petersen vs. Don’Tale Mayes prediction, odds, pick for UFC Iowa

The UFC Iowa Prelims continue to roll as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Heavyweight Division. Thomas Petersen of Minnesota will take on Jackson Wink MMA’s Don’Tale Mayes in what should be an exciting scrap early on this card. Check the UFC odds series for our Petersen-Mayes prediction and pick.

Thomas Petersen (9-3) has gone 1-2 through his first three UFC appearances since 2024. He suffered a debut loss to Jamal Pogues and bounced back resoundingly with a win over Mohammed Usman. Most recently, he dropped to Shamil Gaziev via knockout and will hope to bounce back in this spot as the betting favorite. Petersen stands 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch reach.

Don’Tale Mayes (11-8) has gone 4-6-0-1 inside the UFC since debuting in 2019. After an up-and-down record throughout 2023 and 2025, he dropped his most recent bout against Valter Walker and will be hoping for an upset victory to break his losing streak of two fights. Mayes stands 6-foot-6 with an 81-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Iowa Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Iowa Odds: Thomas Petersen-Don’Tale Mayes Odds

Thomas Petersen: -265

Don’Tale Mayes: +215

Over 2.5 rounds: -166

Under 2.5 rounds: +130

Why Thomas Petersen Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Shamil Gaziev – KO (right hook, R1)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Thomas Petersen saw an unfortunate ending to his last fight as he was quickly knocked out by a talented kickboxer in Shamil Gaziev. He’s still fresh onto the UFC scene and has had his glimmers of talent, namely during his bout against Mohammed Usman. He’s extremely game when it comes to standing and striking with his opponents, but recent results would suggest that he should tighten his defense up and take a more balanced approach when initiating his offense opposite another dangerous striker.

Petersen does, however, do a great job of coaxing his opponents in and forcing them into a brawl. His movement isn’t very explosive, but he moves forward slowly and will cut opponents off in the cage as he forces them against the fence. He’s also very accurate with his boxing combinations and lands significant strikes at a 60% clip. With 4.45 significant strikes per minute, he’s the more active boxer compared to his opponent and could stand to win this fight with his higher output of strikes.

Why Don’Tale Mayes Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Valter Walker – SUB (heel hook, R1)
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Don’Tale Mayes ran into a tough stylistic matchup during his last fight and it resulted in a quick submission loss. Grappling has been a hole in his game for a while, but he can rest easy knowing he’ll be tasked with an active striker during this fight. Don’Tale Mayes is a very long and rangy boxer, utilizing his front jab while keeping opponents on their toes with his looping punches. He has great power when he’s able to land clean and his movement around the octagon will be the key to his success in this one.

Mayes will also be working behind a massive size and reach advantage, something he’s seeing for the first time in his last few fights. While his opponent isn’t likely to initiate him in grappling exchanges, Mayes will have to work on his defense and not allow his opposition to get in front of him on the striking numbers. If he’s able to start this fight fast and immediately exploit the size and reach discrepancy, he should be able to come away with a win via decision by the end of this one.

Final Thomas Petersen-Don’Tale Mayes Prediction & Pick

Both fighters are coming into this bout following recent finishing losses, so they’ll both be very motivated to come away with a similar result in this fight. Thomas Petersen is a no-frills boxer who will be looking to close the distance and put Mayes on his back foot with aggressive boxing. Mayes, on the other hand, has a massive size advantage and can find success if he’s able to manage the striking distance and utilize some of his kickboxing techniques.

Indicated by the betting odds, Petersen is the slightly more consistent striker and should be able to dictate the pace of this fight. Mayes is more of a reactionary striker and will try to lull opponents into his slow rhythm while exploding with offense at inopportune moments.

Despite Don’Tale Mayes’ advantage in the size, Thomas Petersen is the far more active striker and should be able to win this bout on the back of his activity. I expect this fight to reach the distance where Petersen will be much further ahead on the striking numbers than Mayes. Let’s roll with the betting favorite for our final prediction.

Final Thomas Petersen-Don’Tale Mayes Prediction & Pick: Thomas Petersen (-265); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-166)