UFC 304 preview and predictions

The first time Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad met, we didn’t get much in terms of quantity. A severe eye poke ended things before the first round concluded. But we may have seen enough to have an idea of what lays ahead.

An uncharacteristically aggressive Edwards walked down Muhammad, landed at will, and neutralized reactive grappling attempts. Since that 2021 meeting, Edwards has only improved in his wrestling defense and still is a vastly superior striker. If he has a similar approach, the judges may not be necessary.

Prediction: Edwards by TKO, Round 3

Tom Aspinall (14-3) vs. Curtis Blaydes (18-4)

The co-main event between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes is another title fight that will serve as a sequel to a premature and anticlimactic ending. Unlike the headliner, the first fight didn’t give us a suitable preview for Saturday evening. 

The only thing we did get was a brief glimpse at the footwork and speed of the interim champion versus the raw power of Blaydes. What we didn’t see was Blaydes powerful wrestling at work, nor how Aspinall plans to deal with it.

If Aspinall can work in the leg kicks he began their first fight with while avoiding the takedown and/or counter right hands that are sure to follow, he could put on a clinic for his countrymen with cumulative damage. Coupled with his own power and crisp boxing technique, this is a potential star-making moment.

Prediction: Aspinall by TKO, Round 4

Bobby Green (32-15-1) vs. Paddy Pimblett (21-3)

The UFC is hoping to push Liverpool native Paddy Pimblett into the lightweight rankings against number 15 ranked Bobby Green. Pimblett is looking to maintain his undefeated record in the UFC while Green is coming off of a stellar performance against fellow storied vet Jim Miller in April. 

From a skill standpoint this isn’t an evenly matched fight. Green is light years ahead of Pimblett on the feet and has given fits to superior grapplers as well. What Pimblett does have is undeniable power and an opponent nearing 40 years old with almost 50 fights on his odometer. 

However, Green should still have enough left in him to send “Baddy” back home with his first Octagon loss.

Prediction: Green by Decision

Christian Leroy Duncan (10-1) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (15-5)

Middleweights Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues are very evenly matched even if the fight itself will be one way traffic. Whoever wins this is very likely to dominate from start to finish. Duncan’s slick kickboxing will take over if “Robocop” doesn’t push too hard of a pace to bring things to the mat. 

In these scenarios it’s hard to pick against the man with the significant ground advantage. Rodrigues will have 15 minutes to find a single leg and work on the floor. That’s a long time to survive for someone with limited skills in that realm.

Prediction: Rodrigues by TKO, Round 2

Arnold Allen (19-3) vs. Giga Chikadze (15-3)

The UFC is hoping to open the main card with a banger between Arnold Allen and Giga Chikadze. Allen will enter the cage on a 2-fight losing streak while Chikadze is almost a year removed from his decision win over Alex Caceres.

As entertaining as the style clash could be on the feet, Allen would be better off not giving the former Glory kickboxer the chance to get comfortable. Look for him to bring it to the canvas early and finish with ground strikes.

Prediction: Allen by TKO, Round 2

Full UFC 304 predictions and odds

Main Card

• Leon Edwards (-218) vs. Belal Muhammad (+180): Edwards by TKO, Round 3
• Tom Aspinall (-290) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+235): Aspinall by TKO, Round 4
• Bobby Green (-142) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+120): Green by Decision
• Christian Duncan (-115) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-105): Rodrigues by TKO, Round 2
• Arnold Allen (-265) vs. Giga Chikadze (+215): Allen by TKO, Round 2

Preliminary Card

• Nathaniel Wood (-455) vs. Daniel Pineda (+350): Wood by Decision
• Molly McCann (-285) vs. Bruna Brasil (+230): McCann by Decision
• Caolan Loughran (+180) vs. Jake Hadley (-218): Loughran by Decision
• Modestas Bukauskas (-148) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+124): Prachnio by TKO, Round 3
• Oban Elliott (+136) vs. Preston Parsons (-162): Parsons by Submission, Round 1
• Muhammad Mokaev (-110) vs. Manel Kape (-110): Mokaev by Decision
• Sam Patterson (-355) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+280): Patterson by Submission, Round 2
• Mick Parkin (-218) vs. Łukasz Brzeski (+180): Parkin by Decision
• Shauna Bannon (+114) vs. Ravena Oliveira (-135): Bannon by Decision