UFC 319 main card predictions: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev and other coinflip fights

Khamzat Chimaev to maul Dricus du Plessis in the opening rounds

Du Plessis has an uncanny ability to win fights he should lose on paper. His gas tank is underrated, as is his grappling. The major factor deciding the outcome of this fight is his history of being controlled by fighters who are comparably worse than Chimaev.

If you look back just a few fights on du Plessis' resume, he's being held down by Derek Brunson, and taken down by Darren Till. This isn't to mention his questionable takedowns against Brad Tavares and Adesanya. He can't afford to be controlled this way by Chimaev in the opening rounds, and nobody has withstood him yet.

Chimaev's track record against elite grapplers in Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns, as well as those with elite takedown defense like Whittaker, makes him the safest bet. But, don't rule out du Plessis surviving those early scrambles and finding a finish in the later rounds.

Lerone Murphy to spoil Aaron Pico's debut

This is very heart vs. mind. An educated guess here is Lerone Murphy stalls Aaron Pico with effective grappling and point-striking in order to secure the decision victory. His safest route to victory is to prod the shorter man at range, and smother any blitzes with underhooks and cage stalling.

There's every chance Pico finds that miracle shot, as Edson Barboza and Dan Ige almost have against Murphy in the past. But until he does, it's best to rule in favor of the undefeated, ranked UFC prospect with a stronger strength of resume.

Carlos Prates to return to winning ways against Geoff Neal

UFC rushed Prates too much with the Ian Garry fight, but if he's learned from his loss then he should be a force to reckon with in the welterweight division. If anything, Prates showed he could he a potent threat up until the final seconds of a 25 minute fight.

Neal hasn't really won a fight since knockout out Vicente Luque in 2022, and despite always having a puncher's chance, the sensible pick is Prates to end the fight by knockout.

Michael Page to outscore Jared Cannonier

Fighters are always going to struggle with standup fights against Michael Page, and it's safe to say fans will be privy to an all-striking affair this weekend.

Although Cannonier undoubtedly has the stronger hands and the better strength of schedule, you simply cannot bet against Page in a kickboxing match.

Pick Page to steal himself a unanimous decision, if not to pull of his first UFC finish against 'The Killa Gorilla,' since Cannonier's durability has been called into question in his last few fights.

Kai Asakura to finish Tim Elliott

This is another case, where, like Carlos Prates, Kai Asakura should have learned a lot from his latest defeat. The former RIZIN champion debuted with an immediate title shot against Alexandre Pantoja, and was submitted in the second round.

While Elliott is one of the most underestimated fighters on the roster, he doesn't have a standout win against top-name opposition, while all of his losses have come to the very best at flyweight. It's hard to imagine Asakura's name in the win column for Elliott given these circumstances.

Expect a frenetic Asakura to hit hard and hit early, looking to secure a finish in the opening rounds.

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