UFC 321 – Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista: Preview & Betting Tips

The bantamweight division takes centre stage at UFC 321 as Umar Nurmagomedov looks to continue his march towards another title shot with a win against red-hot contender Mario Bautista.

Nurmagomedov (18-1) enters UFC 321 as one of the most complete prospects to ever emerge from the famed Nurmagomedov camp. A cousin of former lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar embodies the same fundamentals: suffocating wrestling, relentless top control, and the kind of composure that breaks opponents mentally long before the final bell.

Bautista (16-2) one of the most improved fighters in the UFC over the last three years. Riding an eight-fight winning streak, the 31-year-old from Arizona has quietly built a résumé that demands respect.

Tale of the Tape 

Umar Nurmagomedov – Odds 1.16 (Bet MGM)

Record: 18-1

Age: 29

Height: 5ft8

Reach: 69”

Weight: Bantamweight 

Stance: Orthodox 

Mario Bautista – Odds 5.4 (Bet MGM)

Record: 16-2

Age: 32

Height: 5ft9

Reach: 69”

Weight: Bantamweight

Stance: Switch

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista: Analysis

What separates Umar from the rest of his relatives, however, is his fluidity on the feet. Over his last few fights, he has demonstrated a polished and patient striking arsenal, particularly his sharp body kicks and crisp counters. His ability to transition seamlessly from kickboxing range into takedown entries makes him an incredibly difficult puzzle to solve. 

Once he establishes control on the mat, his positional awareness and ground striking make escape nearly impossible, especially with the use of the famed Dagestani handcuff.

Bautista’s movement is clean and efficient and he’s constantly changing angles and tempo to keep opponents off balance. What’s impressed people most during his streak is how composed he’s become under pressure. Against aggressive opponents, he picks his shots wisely, avoids unnecessary brawls, and controls distance beautifully.

Another key factor heading into UFC 321 is Bautista’s improved takedown defence. Once vulnerable on the mat, he’s tightened this up and learned to scramble intelligently, and shown an ability to get back to his feet even against strong wrestlers. However, he hasn’t yet fought a wrestler on the same level as Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov vs Bautista: Prediction & Betting Tips

Bautista is too tough and too disciplined to be steamrolled early, but Nurmagomedov’s relentless pressure and chain wrestling could deplete him. I think Umar mixes in body kicks and feints before dragging the fight to the mat repeatedly, controlling position, and racking up minutes on top.

Mario Bautista brings confidence, crisp striking, and an eight-fight streak, but Nurmagomedov’s control and composure should once again showcase why the Dagestani formula remains one of the toughest styles to figure out.

I’m willing to take a chance on the Russian finding some sort of arm lock or head and arm choke to finish this fight from side control or half guard. My pick is Umar Nurmagomedov to win by submission at odds of 5.10 (Bet MGM).