UFC Belgrade Predictions

After venturing to Abu Dhabi last weekend, the UFC continues its time away from the United States with its first of five August events, which is taking place in Belgrade, Serbia. This will be the first time the UFC has held an event in the country, which seems appropriate as real contenders are starting to emerge from Serbia.

One of those contenders, Uros Medic, is headlining the card against fellow top 15 welterweight, Daniel Rodriguez. Both men have won their last three in a row, so the main event winner should find themselves in a fight with a top ten opponent in their next octagon appearance. 

The rest of the card features other Serbian talent like Aleksander Rakic, Dusko Todorovic, and plenty of debutants. Not only that but former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz and surging contender Navajo Stirling square off in the main event. 

UFC Belgrade Predictions

This piece will give a breakdown and prediction for each fight on the UFC’s inaugural event in Serbia. 

Marina Spasic (7-1) vs. Stephanie Luciano (7-2-1) 

Pick: Stephanie Luciano 

We kick off the card in the UFC’s lightest division, Women’s strawweight, where debuting Serbian prospect, Marina Spasic, faces a tough test in Stephanie Luciano. This isn’t to say that Spasic has no future in the UFC, but this feels like an unreasonable test for her in her debut. 

Spasic’s best attribute is her aggressive striking, and while the levels are similar, you could make the case for Luciano being the better striker. That also doesn’t take into account Luciano’s definitive grappling advantage. 

Early in this fight I expect these two to exchange on the feet but as Luciano realizes that Spasic can hold her own, Luciano will start to implement takedowns. Once she does she should control the remainder of the fight on the mat while doing damage with ground strikes and submission attempts, earning her a decision win. 

Jovan Leka (13-2) vs. Alexander Poppeck (21-5) 

Pick: Jovan Leka 

The second fight to feature a Serbian on this card comes at heavyweight between two debutants in Serbia’s Jovan Leka, and Germany’s Alexander Poppeck. What jumps off the page right away in this fight is the massive size difference. 

Leka is a massive heavyweight standing 6’5” and regularly weighing in at 265 pounds, while Poppeck used to fight at middleweight. Despite his size, Leka is also quite fast and has a diverse striking game that includes kicks to all levels, while having the ability to smother his opponent on the mat. 

Considering the incredible size difference, and Poppeck’s career tendency to fold under the pressure of a step-up in competition, Leka seems like the pick here. I expect that he will use leg kicks early to set up a takedown where he uses his size and ground strikes to finish the fight in the second round. 

Nina Milosevic (8-1) vs. Hailey Cowan (7-5)

Pick: Nina Milosevic

The UFC clearly wants the crowd to show up early because this is the third consecutive fight with a Serbian prospect on it, and after a 1-1 start to the night, I think they can pick up a second win as a country here. Despite this being her debut, Nina Milosevic is over a four-to-one favorite, but that has more to do with how bad Hailey Cowan is, not how amazing Milosevic is. 

After reviewing her tape, Milosevic has virtually no weaknesses, but she also doesn't have a particular skill that she is great at, she is more just solid everywhere. Long-term this and her small stature are going to keep her from reaching the top of the division, but it won’t be a problem against Cowan who has weaknesses just about everywhere. 

The biggest out of all of Cowan’s weaknesses is her defensive grappling, which Milosevic can certainly capitalize on. The pick is that Milosevic crashes the pocket to avoid the reach advantage of Cowan, initiates clinches, and takes Cowan down repeatedly, which ends in Milosevic winning on the judges’ scorecards. 

Mateusz Rebecki (20-5) vs Kyle Prepolec (18-10) 

Pick: Mateusz Rebecki 

This is going to be a dog fight for as long as it lasts. Mateusz Rebecki is always good for a war, and has shown time and time again that he has the physical and technical tools to be a force in the division, but his fighting IQ keeps holding him back. His opponent, Kyle Prepolec is one of the better 0-4 UFC fighters in company history as he has faced quite the gauntlet of a schedule through his career. Since getting back to the UFC, Prepolec has had to fight top 10 lightweight Benoit Saint-Denis, and lightweight mainstay Drew Dober, with this fight against Rebecki not being much easier.

There isn’t much of a technical breakdown as these two are just going to go to war and find out which one is better at it, and my pick is Rebecki. The Polish veteran has done this with higher-level opposition and is the more relentless of the two. The pick is that in the second round, the pressure becomes too much for Prepolec and Rebecki gets the TKO win to snap his three-fight skid. 

Dennis Buzukja (12-6)  vs. Bogdan Grad (15-4) 

Pick: Bogdan Grad 

This is a classic “who's getting cut fight” as whoever loses this one will be on their way out of the UFC. Both fighters are coming off violent knockout losses and have always struggled defensively, but one has taken proper time to recover while the other seems to be rushing back. 

Less than four months ago, Dennis Buzukja was left completely unconscious on the canvas after being knocked out by Marcio Barbosa, and is already back in action. Bogdan Grad suffered a similar fate against Luke Riley but that was over eight months ago, so he has had plenty of time to recover.

At this point, I have lost all faith in the defense of Buzukja and Grad, while not an elite striker, does hit with some power. The pick is that after wrestling Buzukja for much of the first round, Grad opens up in the second and knocks Buzukja down where he eventually finishes him with ground strikes. 

Borislav Nikolic (16-2) vs. Mark Vologdin (12-4-2) 

Pick: Borislav Nikolic

After a short two-fight break from Serbian prospects, the debuting Borislav Nikolic enters the octagon against one of the most aggressive fighters on the roster in Mark Vologdin. Despite being 0-1-1 in his UFC and Dana White’s Contender Series appearances, Volgdin has been in two fight of the year candidates, making him quite popular within the organization.

This weekend he should have another willing dance partner in Nikolic who, much like Volgdin, is a wild striker willing to get hit to land his own strikes. Because of their respective fighting styles, it is hard to confidently pick either of these fighters, but what this comes down to is the massive size advantage for Serbia’s Nikolic. 

Volgdin’s aggressiveness, cardio, and grit are going to be enough to keep him in almost any fight and win several, but being 5’3” at bantamweight is almost certainly going to cause some problems for him. Going against Nikolic, who is half a foot taller than him is going to make this fight very reminiscent of Vologdin's fight with Adrian Luna Martinetti, a war where Vologdin seems to get picked apart unless the fight is in the pocket. 

The pick is that Nikolic survives the damage he takes in the pocket and does plenty of his own from range. This will lead to them both being a bloody mess when they walk out of the cage but Nikolic will be the one with his hand raised after the judges score the fight in his favor. 

Oban Elliot (12-4) vs Michael Oliveira (9-0)

Pick: Michael Oliveira 

One of the most anticipated debuts from season nine of Dana White’s Contender Series is finally here as Michael Oliveira looks to remain undefeated against Oban Elliot. “The Welsh Gangster” was once a highly regarded prospect, but following back-to-back losses, it seems as though the company has given up on him, and putting him against Oliveira seems like an all-but-guaranteed third loss in a row. 

Oliveira, a legitimate Brazilian super soldier, can be simply described as a freakish talent that was built to be a fighter. He isn’t ridiculously tall for welterweight, but his 78.5-inch reach is absurd and he is absolutely chiseled. This frame gives him some of the most effortless punching power I have seen on the regional scene and in my mind makes him a blue chip prospect.

Elliot’s only chance at winning this fight is to get it to the mat, but that seems like a long shot. What’s more likely is that Oliveira marches Elliot down and picks him apart before unloading a massive hook that starches Elliot and turns Oliveira into an overnight star. 

L’udovit Klein (24-5-1) vs Tofiq Musaev (23-6) 

Pick: L’udovit Klein

Finishing off the prelims is one of the best fights on the card as L’udovit Klein and Tofiq Musaev find out whether striking or grappling reign supreme in this matchup. Slovakia’s Klein is one of the most technically sound kickboxers in the division and is coming in with a 5-1 record in his last six fights. His opponent, Musaev, is coming off one of the bloodiest fights of the year back in March where he used vicious ground and pound to defeat Ignacio Bahamondes. 

Oftentimes in fights like these, I have favored the wrestler, but this time around I am going with the striker. While Musaev’s win over Bahamondes is impressive, he cheated several times throughout the fight to make it happen, and was hurt badly by Bahamondes while they were striking. Klein is on a good run right now and his only loss over the last three years has been to Mateusz Gamrot, a top ten lightweight in the world. The pick is that Klein can neutralize Musaev’s wrestling for the most part and do enough damage on the feet to win a decision. 

Milos Jancic (19-3) vs Noah Gugnon (9-2)

Pick: Milos Jancic

The main card opener is set to feature two debuting prospects, Milos Jancic and Noah Gugnon. Each man comes in with at least a five-fight win streak with all of their wins coming by finish. Jancic features a wilder striking style where he looks to overwhelm his opponent with pressure and power while Gugnon, who can strike, is more likely to try and take his opponent to the mat and use ground strikes to finish the fight. 

Much like the last fight, where I said that in striker versus grappler matchups I tend to side with the grappler, I am once again going with the striker. Jancic’s pressure is incredible for someone making their UFC debut, and with this also being Gugnon’s debut, he will have never fought with someone who fights at this pace before. Unless Gugnon can repeatedly take Jancic down he is going to get overwhelmed on the feet, therefore the pick is Jancic by first-round knockout. 

Vlasto Cepo (14-3) vs Gilbert Urbina (7-4) 

Pick: Vlasto Cepo

This is about as clear a crowd-pleaser as possible, as Serbia’s Vlasto Cepo provides nonstop action that usually ends in a knockout and is going against one of the worst defensive fighters on the roster. The only positive for Gilbert Urbina is that like Cepo, he also packs power in his punches, and Cep isn’t the most defensively minded fighter either. Ultimately though, this doesn’t seem like enough to avoid a loss. 

All three of Urbina's opponents that have put pressure on him inside the octagon have ended up finishing him rather quickly. Unfortunately for Urbina, the only thing that Cepo knows how to do is pressure. The pick here is that after a few wild exchanges, Cepo finds the chin of Urbina and knocks him out in the first round. 

Dusko Todorovic (13-6) vs Robert Valentin (11-6) 

Pick: Robert Valentin 

Oh man, this is a really rough fight. Considering that Dusko Todorovic is one of Serbia’s longest-tenured fighters on the UFC roster it’s not a surprise to see him on the card, but that doesn’t make it any less hard to watch. His opponent, Robert Valentin, isn’t much better, as he boasts a not very impressive 1-3 UFC record. 

Despite both of these fighters seeming like obvious removal candidates, one of the two is going to walk out on a two-fight win streak. It is tempting to pick Todorovic considering he is in front of a home crowd, but on a skill-for-skill basis, Valentin is superior. Todorovic may be a slightly better boxer and wrestler, but even that's debatable. In terms of kicks, Valentin is far stronger, he is also much better in the clinch, and as a grappler when the fight hits the mat. The pick is that Valentin beats up Todorovic’s legs with kicks, forcing him to shoot a sloppy takedown, which Valentin turns into a submission attempt that he uses to earn a second straight win. 

Aleksander Rakic (14-6) vs #12 Marcin Tybura (27-11) 

Pick: Aleksander Rakic 

There was once a time when Aleksander Rakic would have undoubtedly been the main event of this card considering he was one win away from a light heavyweight title shot less than three years ago. Unfortunately, he ended his light heavyweight career on a four-fight losing skid and now moves up to heavyweight to try and save his career. 

Usually, to me, a move up in weight signals desperation, but in this case I think it’s a career-saving move. Rakic is only 34, which in heavyweight years is practically 28, and still has all the offensive skills that made him a hot prospect. Up at heavyweight his kickboxing is going to be even more deadly as he will be much faster than much of the heavyweight top 15. This is especially the case against his first heavyweight challenge, Marcin Tybura.

When you think of blobbish heavyweights, Tybura should be one of the first names to come to mind. He is slow, doesn’t pack much power, but has stayed around the top 10 solely from durability and strong clinch work. This isn’t going to help him against Rakic who will be light years ahead of him in speed and striking power. The pick is that Rakic takes the first round to feel Tybura out, before coming to an understanding of how much faster he is than Tybura leading him to unload on Tybura and finish the fight in the second round. 

#4 Jan Blachowicz (29-11-2) vs #15 Navajo Stirling (10-0) 

Pick: Jan Blachowicz

After Bogdan Guskov was called into action to face Magomed Ankalaev in last week’s main event, the undefeated Navajo Stirling is stepping up to take a very short-notice fight with former UFC light heavyweight champion, Jan Blachowicz to try and cement himself as a legitimate contender in this division. The odds will tell you that Stirling is up for the task, but I am not so sure. 

It is true that Blachowicz hasn’t won a fight in four years, but two of his four fights over that time period were draws, all four have been competitive, and all four have been against top 10 talents including three former champions. Stirling on the other hand, is undefeated and coming off the biggest win of his career, but it was against Ion Cutelaba, who is outside of the top 15, and there were moments in which Stirling struggled. 

Fortunately for Stirling, Cutelaba ran out of gas, but that doesn’t seem as likely against Blachowicz. There is always a possibility that because of his age, Blachowicz is finally washed, but until I see it I am not betting on it. The pick is that this is just too big of a step up for Stirling and Blachowicz is able to mix in enough wrestling to control much of this fight and pull off a big upset. 

#14 Uros Medic (13-3) vs #15 Daniel Rodriguez (20-5) 

Pick: Uros Medic

Last up is the main event, featuring Serbia’s hottest contender, Uros Medic, looking to break the three-fight winning streak of Daniel Rodriguez. This is an interesting matchup as both of these men are hanging out at the bottom of the top 15 while riding three-fight win streaks. Clearly, by putting these two up against each other, the UFC is trying to determine which of these two is worthy of being pushed up the ladder.

This is a tough call because one of these fighters, Medic, is the definition of kill or be killed, but recently he has made winning look easy with three knockouts over the last year. Rodriguez, on the other hand, is going to take a more technical approach and is more sound defensively, but has taken more damage. What this comes down to is both age and aggressiveness. 

Medic is still 33 years old and in the prime of his career while Rodriguez is getting very close to 40 and has just spent eight months in prison. Along with that, opponents who have pressured Rodriguez have found success, and Medic knows nothing but pressure. The pick here is that Medic’s speed and power are just too much for Rodriguez to get past. Medic is known for finishing fights quickly, so there is no reason to believe that he shouldn’t end this one in the first round.