UFC Fight Night – Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan: Preview & Betting Tips

The light heavyweight division often delivers chaos, and this weekend’s UFC Fight Night bout between Jimmy Crute and Ivan Erslan has the makings of another firefight in Perth.

Crute (13-4-2) returned from a 19-month layoff in February at UFC 312, where he fought Rodolfo Bellato to a draw. While the result stretched his winless skid to five fights, the performance still offered positives.

Erslan (14-5, 1 NC) has yet to find his footing since joining the UFC from KSW, where he twice challenged for the promotion’s title. The Croatian has dropped both of his Octagon appearances by decision, looking less and less like the bruising contender who once bulldozed regional competition.

Tale of the Tape 

Jimmy Crute – Odds 1.53

Record: 13-4-2

Age: 29

Height: 6ft2

Reach: 74”

Weight: Light-heavyweight 

Stance: Orthodox

Ivan Erslan – Odds 2.50

Record: 14-5, 1 NC

Age: 33

Height: 6ft2

Reach: 72”

Weight: Light-heavyweight 

Stance: Orthodox 

Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan: Analysis 

Crute has shown an improvement in his striking volume and a willingness to engage after time away, as well as the flashes of the wrestling pressure that made him a touted prospect.

Erslan’s trends are concerning. His once reliable wrestling has dropped from 50% accuracy to just 20%, which is supposed to be a major part of his arsenal, while his takedown defence has slipped. On the feet, he’s absorbing way more shots than he was doing before he entered the UFC, showing clear defensive regression, and also showing us that perhaps he is not worthy of being on the roster.

The Australian thrives when he can pressure, mix level changes, and force opponents to defend both strikes and takedowns. Erslan, by contrast, has struggled to stop opponents from dictating the terms. Unless he lands an early bomb or stuffs multiple takedowns, he’s likely to be worn down by Crute’s output and experience.

Crute vs Erslan: Prediction & Betting Tips

The one question mark is Crute’s durability. He’s been hittable and vulnerable in the past. So if Erslan can capitalise on those openings, especially in the early minutes, he has a puncher’s chance. But over three rounds, you have to lean heavily towards the Aussie, especially given that it’s in Perth, in what will be an extraordinary atmosphere.

I do feel like this one could go late, but it all depends on Crute’s strategy in the opening minutes. If he does start aggressively and mixes in takedowns, I believe Erslan could get worn down. And if that was to happen, I would fancy the Aussie to find a submission after the halfway mark of the contest.

With that in mind, I’m willing to take Jimmy Crute to win by submission at odds of 3.75 as he is the much more accomplished man on the mat in this one.