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UFC Fight Night: Shanghai – Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling – Preview & Betting Tips

Originally posted on BoxingNews.com | By Jake Staniland | Last updated Aug 20, 2025 11:24 AM ET

The featherweight co-main event at UFC Fight Night Shanghai delivers two highly ranked fighters as number four ranked Brian Ortega takes on number seven ranked Aljamain Sterling.

Ortega (16-4, 1 NC) looked revitalised in moments against Yair Rodríguez and Chan Sung Jung, but in other fights, like his war with Alexander Volkanovski or his near-stoppage loss to Diego Lopes, he’s been caught looking a step behind in his last five fights.

Sterling (24-5) is making his third appearance at 145-pounds after a long bantamweight run that included a title reign lasting a couple of years. With a win and a loss in his two bouts at featherweight, he’ll be looking to try and put some momentum together and put his name in the title conversation.

Tale of the Tape

Brian Ortega – Odds 3.10 (Bet MGM)

Recor d: 16-4, 1 NC

Age: 34

Height: 5ft8

Reach: 69”

Weight: Featherweight

Stance: Switch

Aljamain Sterling – Odds 1.37 (Bet MGM)

Record: 24-5

Age: 36

Height: 5ft7

Reach: 71”

Weight: Featherweight

Stance: Orthodox

Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling: Analysis

Ortega has long been one of the UFC’s most dangerous submission artists. His guillotine and triangle setups are lethal, and his durability has been great over the years. Few fighters can take the punishment he has and keep coming forward.

The problem is his wrestling entries have never been great, meaning he often struggles to dictate where the fight takes place. Against someone as technically sound at grappling in Sterling, this could be a big problem.

The Jamaican American pushes for takedowns and, once he’s on your back, he sticks to you like glue. His grappling-heavy style smothers opponents, but he’s also grown into becoming a disciplined striker, where he particularly uses his kicks to control the range.

At featherweight, Sterling will no longer enjoy the same size and reach advantages he had at bantamweight. However, his pace and positional control remain major weapons against fighters who can’t shake him off – and I fear Ortega is one of those fighters. That being said, Ortega is at his best snatching subs in chaos moments.

Ortega vs Sterling: Prediction & Betting Tips

This fight is really intriguing because Ortega doesn’t usually shoot, but Sterling may be hesitant to dive into Ortega’s guard if the takedown isn’t fully secured. That opens the door for long stretches of long range striking. In this situation, Sterling has the cleaner, more disciplined kickboxing, but Ortega has more power in boxing exchanges, especially at mid-range.

If they hit the ground, Sterling’s control game could neutralise Ortega’s slick submission setups. But if Ortega can create scrambles, he’s definitely a live underdog for a fight-ending choke off of his back.

I’m not willing to pick on Ortega’s side though just for one aspect of his game. My pick for this one is Aljamain Sterling to win by decision or technical decision at odds of 2.00 (Bet MGM); I believe both men will neutralise each other, but Sterling’s work on the feet gets him the nod.

This article first appeared on BoxingNews.com and was syndicated with permission.

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