UFC Fight Night: Shanghai – Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta – Preview & Betting Tips

The huge heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night in Shanghai pits two very different strikers against one another, as Sergei Pavlovich takes on Waldo “Salsa Boy” Cortes Acosta.

Pavlovich’s (19-3) run through the top 10 was built on his ability to walk forward and blast guys out of the cage. But against the now UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall, the Russian met his match and was sparked out early on. He then suffered another defeat versus fellow Russian Alexander Volkov before getting the job done over Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Cortes Acosta (14-1) is on a five-fight win streak which has seen him claim victories over veteran MMA fighters such as Andrei Arlovski and Serghei Spivac. He’s now in a situation where he needs to prove himself as being one of the elite names in the heavyweight division.

Tale of the Tape

Sergei Pavlovich – Odds 1.44 (Bet 365)

Record: 19-3

Age: 33

Height: 6ft3

Reach: 84”

Weight: Heavyweight

Stance: Southpaw

Waldo Cortes Acosta – Odds 2.88 (Bet 365)

Record: 14-1

Age: 33

Height: 6ft4

Reach: 78”

Weight: Heavyweight

Stance: Orthodox

Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes Acosta: Analysis

Pavlovich is a nightmare matchup for most heavyweights. He’s a pure boxer at heart where he combines blistering hand speed with some of the heaviest punches in the division. His ability to trust his chin and throw in combinations makes him one of the scariest men at heavyweight, especially given his size.

Cortes Acosta is also always fun to watch. He’s an athletic striker with sharp hands, good movement, and toughness that’s carried him through some tricky matchups. Once known for his tendency to get flashy and start dancing mid-fight, he’s recently looked much more focused. While he doesn’t have the eye-catching KO power like Pavlovich has, the Dominican relies more on having consistent output throughout the fight and good durability.

The real concern is that Waldo hasn’t been tested against true one-punch KO artists. His most recent opponents: Ryan Spann (long past his prime) and Serghei Spivac (a gatekeeper of the heavyweight division), hardly prepares him for what’s coming in Shanghai.

Pavlovich vs Cortes Acosta: Prediction & Betting Tips

This fight comes down to whether Waldo can make Pavlovich hesitate. To beat the Russian, you need to sting him early and earn his respect, otherwise he’ll just keep coming forward with bombs. 

Waldo hasn’t shown that type of fight-ending power, and while he’s durable, Pavlovich’s speed and accuracy are a level above anything he’s faced before. But one area he could exploit is Pavlovich’s wrestling, which we saw him have difficulties with against Volkov. 

If Cortes Acosta can extend the fight using his jab and defensive tools, it could give him moments to try and use some wrestling entries to disgruntle Pavlovich. However, I don’t think he has the ability to do that. I’m taking Sergei Pavlovich to win by KO/TKO in the first round at odds of 3.60 (Bet 365).