UFC Fight Night – Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim: Preview & Betting Tips

Veteran Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson faces off against surging Brazilian prospect Gabriel Bonfim in a welterweight bout between two fighters at the opposite end of their careers.

Thompson (17-8-1), now 42, brings decades of elite-level striking experience into the Octagon and his resume speaks for itself. However, age is catching up and he’s coming off of two brutal losses and hasn’t shown the same spark that made him a top contender just a few years ago.

Bonfim (17-1-0) may not be a household name yet, but he’s a serious threat in the welterweight division. The 27-year-old has quietly built a reputation as a finisher, particularly on the mat. He averages an impressive 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes with 76% accuracy, and he stays busy on the ground with 2.2 submission attempts per fight.

Tale of the Tape

Stephen Thompson – Odds 4.00 (Bet 365)

Record: 17-8-1

Age: 42

Height: 6ft

Reach: 75”

Weight: Welterweight 

Stance: Orthodox

Gabriel Bonfim – Odds 1.25 (Bet 365)

Record: 17-1-0

Age: 27

Height: 6ft1

Reach: 72”

Weight: Welterweight 

Stance: Orthodox

Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim: Analysis

There was once a time where Thompson was considered one of the best counter-strikers in the UFC. His footwork, timing, and accuracy made him a nightmare for reckless opponents. Nowadays though, the reflexes aren’t quite what they were, and Thompson’s weakness has always been grapplers who can pressure and chain takedowns.

This is exactly what Bonfim will try to do. He’ll look to close the gap and suffocate the American veteran so that he cannot get off some of his sharp karate style of striking. And from there, he’ll look to initiate clinches and force the fight to the mat. 

In his younger days, Thompson would be able to evade a wrestler’s pressure by using lateral and vertical movement effortlessly. But, it just seems like a struggle now. And when this happens, it will tire you out more, which means as the fight goes on the wrestler will find more and more success. And I can see this happening in this one.

Thompson vs Bonfim: Prediction & Betting Tips

This is a tricky fight for Stephen Thompson. While he remains one of the cleanest strikers in the division, his takedown defence has looked increasingly shaky, and age is a growing concern. 

Meanwhile, Bonfim is younger, hungrier, and thrives in exactly the kinds of situations where Thompson has historically struggled. Thompson’s days at the elite level certainly look to be behind him. And with a good performance and potentially a finish, the Brazilian would be taking a huge scalp here to elevate his own name and reputation.

There isn’t much value in taking his moneyline, and with Thompson being stopped in his last two fights, unfortunately I’m willing to back him to make it three in a row. I’m taking Gabriel Bonfim to win by submission at odds of 2.55. And with a third successive stoppage loss, it pains me to say it, but we may see “Wonderboy” place his glove in the centre of the Octagon after the fight.