UFC Shanghai Preview and Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich – Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Tomorrow on the main card of UFC Shanghai, we are going to see a really pivotal and under the radar matchup in the heavyweight division. Former title challenger and third ranked heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich (19-3) is back as he takes on the surging sixth ranked contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta (14-1).

Starting with the former title challenger, he will be looking for a second straight win to get him back in the title picture. In 2023 at MSG, Pavlovich fought Tom Aspinall for the interim UFC heavyweight title. Pavlovich was knocked out in the first round which snapped a six-fight win streak.

Following that, Pavlovich fought a former teammate in Alexander Volkov and was outpointed and busted up over the course of fifteen minutes. His stock took a huge hit, but he was able to bounce back with a win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik earlier this year.

Now, he’ll take on Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta won the LFA heavyweight title then made his UFC debut following a knockout win on The Contender Series. He was 9-0 when he suffered his first career loss inside the octagon. Since then, he’s gone 5-0 and in his last fight, he won a decision over Serghei Spivac.

UFC Shanghai Prediction

Sergei Pavlovich is still enjoying the fruits of his insane finish streak that led him to a title shot a couple of years ago. I’m shocked he’s such a big betting favorite for tomorrow’s matchup. Sure, he has ungodly power and he can easily win this fight by knockout.

However, he really hasn’t looked great since his stoppage over Curtis Blaydes more than two years ago. Meanwhile, Cortes-Acosta is on a win streak and he is extremely well-rounded. When he’s needed to box, he’s used his hands to hurt opponents. When he needed to grapple, he used his wrestling (just ask Robelis Despaigne).

He is the more well-rounded fighter ahead of UFC Shanghai. If the fight ends in the first round, without question I think that Sergei Pavlovich got it done. However, if this fight goes into the second or if it goes the distance, I think Cortes-Acosta has a real shot to get this done.

I’ve gone back-and-forth with this pick, but I’m going to still lean ever so slightly towards Pavlovich. I think he’ll be in vintage form at UFC Shanghai and I suspect he’ll get himself a finish to get back in the title picture.

Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich by KO