UFC St. Louis picks: 6 long-shot props from MMA Prop Squad for Sat. 5/11

Tabatha Ricci by Finish (+500, Bet365)

By Billy Ward, Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET

Tabatha Ricci is a slight (-140 or so) favorite in her fight against Tecia Pennington (nee Torres). Those feel like roughly fair odds – if Pennington weren’t returning from the birth of her child.

We’ve seen plenty of women struggle in their first fight back from pregnancy. The long layoff is a problem in and of itself; it’s been nearly two years since Pennington graced the UFC octagon. That goes double when you’re unable to train for a big chunk of that time, especially at age 34 when physical ability begins to decline anyway.

Because of those factors, I like Ricci better than her moneyline implies. Her newly improved striking and world-class grappling are a tough problem to solve, especially given the inactivity from Pennington.

As one would expect, this fight is lined heavily to go to a decision. It’s a strawweight fight, after all, and 75% of these women’s fights have needed the judges.

However, Ricci’s grappling gives her a clear path to a finish. She has black belts in judo and jiu-jitsu, and has been more aggressive with strikes on the ground as her career progresses.

I’m expecting her to finish this fight far more often than her +500 (16.7%) odds imply, so I’m taking a sprinkle at her inside-the-distance line in addition to her moneyline. A submission is more likely, but this is juicy enough that I don’t want to lose the bet because she goes for ground and pound instead.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission (+500 at bet365)

Esteban Ribovics in Round 2 (+500), Round 3 (+1400, Hard Rock)

By Dan Tom, Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Protect Ya' Neck podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:55 p.m. ET

For this week's MMA Prop Squad submission, I decided to go back to the well and target some potential "hot rounds" in a preliminary-card bout between Terrance McKinney and Esteban Ribovics.

Whenever I refer to the term "hot rounds," I'm typically referring to rounds in which there's serious potential for a particular party to finish.

In this case, I'm playing into one of my favorite matchup dynamics: first-round finishers with suspect gas tanks vs. durable, building fighters who pick up late.

McKinney is an undeniable dynamo out of the gate, but the 29-year-old American has also been a notorious one-round fighter with suspect staying power.

Although Ribovics has traditionally struggled with giving away early takedowns in past performances, the Argentinian's defense and offense tend to pick up drastically as the fight wears on.

For that reason, I'm opting to take a stab at some Ribovics round props rather than lay the chalk on his moneyline considering the price differences in relation to the dynamic at hand.

So long as Ribovics can get out of the first frame, then his pace should allow him to pull away from McKinney until a finish materializes in Rounds 2 or 3.

(Be sure to shop around for the best price, though. The prop odds for this particular fight vary quite a bit from sportsbook to sportsbook.)

The Pick: Esteban Ribovics in Round 2 (+500 at FanDuel), Round 3 (+1400 at Hard Rock)

Alex Caceres by KO (+1700, BetRivers)

By Clint MacLean, Contributor at The Action Network and host of the Die Hard MMA Podcast

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET

Alex Caceres is facing Sean Woodson at UFC St. Louis on Saturday, and Caceres is one of the few fighters in this weight class who comes close to matching his featherweigh opponent's height and reach.

Both men tend to fight long and try to keep their opponents on the outside of their range. But against each other, we should have a pretty even fight.

We've seen Woodson struggle to take punches from smaller fighters, and though Caceres is not considered a power puncher, you can see him sitting more on his punches in his fight against Giga Chikadze. Charles Jourdain was coming up just short in his fight against Woodson, and Caceres will enjoy an extra four inches in reach.

If Cacares lands the shots that Johnson couldn't, I believe he will hurt Woodson and remind people about those durability issues.

Therefore, for my Prop Squad pick this week, we are taking a crack at a big one.

The Pick: Alex Caceres by KO, TKO, or DQ (+1700 at BetRivers)

Nursulton Ruziboev by KO (+375)

By Tony Sartori, Contributor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC co-main event features a welterweight bout between No. 11-ranked contender Joaquin Buckley and unranked Nursulton Ruziboev. Buckley opened as a -170 favorite and has since been bet down to -118, and I agree with the steam on the underdog.

While Buckley possesses devastating power, he leaves more to be desired in the rest of the martial arts. Buckley took this fight on relatively short notice because he is going to fight in front of his home crowd, but this is an incredibly tough matchup against a rising prospect in Ruziboev.

It's tough to call a guy a "rising prospect" when he is 30 years old and has 46 professional fights under his belt, but that is the case for a guy who was very active among very poor competition around the world. With that said, Ruziboev is 2-0 since joining the UFC with two first-round knockouts, and I expect more of the same in a matchup in which he is going to be, by far, the bigger fighter.

I think the only reason 6-foot-5 Ruziboev opened as such a large underdog is that he is coming down to 170 pounds for this fight. I also had a lot of doubt about whether he could make the weight from his usual 185-pound class, but he did, and now I trust him to bring that middleweight knockout power to this fight against a 5-foot-10 welterweight.

Buckley's power is legit, but Ruziboev has been knocked out only once over his 46 professional fights. On the flip side, Buckley has lost by KO/TKO in four of his six professional losses.

I think both guys are going to get in there and immediately start throwing bombs, and oddsmakers agree considering that the "fight doesn't go to decision" prop is listed as wide as -320. If that is the case, I'm not sure that Buckley will be able to make up for the size (or chin) disadvantage in front of his home crowd.

The Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev by KO/TKO (+375 at Betfred or Hard Rock)

Rodrigo Nascimento by submission (+370, FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca, Contributor at The Action Network and combat sports host and on-air talent

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET

Derrick Lewis is the favorite against Rodrigo Nascimento, but I just generally don't love the idea of backing someone who has lost four of five fights and five of seven, even in a step down in competition.

Lewis is still a name, but he's closer to a gatekeeper than a contender in 2024, and I think there's real value on the lesser-known Nascimento.

Nascimento is 11-1, coming off three straight wins, though two were split decisions and legitimately close. Still, Lewis has suffered three knockout losses and a submission defeat over the last seven fights, in which he's fallen mightily.

But the reason I'd sprinkle on the Nascimento submission is that, even with Lewis' takedown defense, Nascimento is likely unsuccessful unless the fight is on the ground – if he can get it there.

The Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt also provides more volume, landing 4.31 to 2.42 strikes per minute and has a 33% takedown accuracy – I do expect smart aggression against the explosive Lewis – who TKO'd Marcos Rogerio de Lima last year. Nascimento will need some measure of work rate to get a submission, of course.

Serghei Spivac was able to ground Lewis and apply an arm-triangle choke for a Round 1 submission last year. I'll sprinkle on Nascimento to have a similar strategy, as he did to Don'Tale Mayes in 2020.

The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento by Submission (+370 at FanDuel)