UFC Vegas 120 Predictions

For the last couple of weeks, the UFC has been away on international endeavors in both Abu Dhabi and Serbia. After some time away it seems only fair that for their first trip back to the U.S., the UFC makes its first stop at home base in the Apex. 

If you have followed the UFC for any extended period of time, you know that Apex cards are typically the weakest of the bunch, but outside of the main event, this one is especially rough.

To focus on the positives, the main event between Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld should be both high-level and entertaining, while also teaching us whether Salkilld is a legitimate title contender. 

UFC Vegas 120 Predictions

This piece will answer the question as to whether or not Salkilld is ready to compete with the division’s best and will give a prediction for each fight on this weekend’s card. 

Juliana Miller (4-4) vs Ravena Oliveira (7-4-1) 

Pick: Juliana Miller

We can just look at records here and know this is a bad fight. These two women have a combined 2-6 record in the UFC, but surprisingly Juliana Miller holds both of those wins despite her 4-4 record. 

In terms of skill though, this makes a lot of sense as Miller is also the only fighter of the two to possess an elite-level skill. While Ravena Oliveira may be a better striker, her striking doesn’t come close to matching the level of Miller’s grappling. Oliveira isn’t the hardest to take down, and will be at a size disadvantage, so the pick is Miller by decision. 

Miles Johns (15-5) vs Jessie Rosas (8-1) 

Pick: Miles Johns

The biggest headline in this fight is the debut of Raul Rosas Jr.’s older brother Jessie Rosas, but despite some promising tape this feels like too much too soon. Unlike his brother, Rosas is more well-rounded and less of a specialist, but like his brother, he is still very young at only 23 years old. Rosas has also faced rather poor opposition on the regional scene which might make him look even younger and more inexperienced than he actually is. 

This youth and inexperience do not fare well when taking on Johns, who is a 12-fight UFC veteran with a winning record. Although Johns is on a three-fight skid at the moment, those losses were to three top 25 bantamweights and were rather competitive. Rosas has yet to prove he is of that level so the pick is that Johns’ pressure overwhelms Rosas and earns Johns a decision win. 

Manoel Sousa (14-1) vs Richie Miranda (13-1) 

Pick: Manoel Sousa

This fight won’t have a lot of eyes on it, but this is actually one of the better fights on the card. In my opinion, both Manoel Sousa and Richie Miranda are high-end prospects at lightweight who, at bare minimum, could end up as top 15 contenders. 

Miranda is the most recent LFA lightweight champion, and has faced some legitimate regional talent to reach that status. He has proven to be strong everywhere, especially on the ground, but the difference maker in this fight is the immense power of Sousa. 

When Sousa lands it is devastating. If this fight stays on its feet for any extended period of time, I can’t see how Sousa doesn’t find a knockout. Considering his takedown defense isn’t perfect there is a chance Miranda gets him down, controls the fight, and wins on the judges’ scorecard, but because of the level of danger Miranda faces when this fight is on its feet, the pick is Sousa by first-round knockout. 

Jose Montanha (6-1) vs Louie Sutherland (11-5) 

Pick: Louie Sutherland

This fight is awful, straight up. Louie Sutherland just won a fight about three months ago over Tai Tuivasa in what may have been the most boring and sloppy fight of the year. Now he fights Jose Montanha, who from what I have seen, doesn’t have a skill he particularly excels at and is just sort of like any other low-tier heavyweight.

There isn’t much that separates these two, and unless Montanha overachieves, I wouldn’t mind never seeing either of them fight again. But, because I have to pick, the biggest advantage for anyone in this fight is Sutherland’s wrestling and UFC experience. For that reason, I will take Sutherland in a fight none of us will want to remember. 

Diyar Nurgozhay (11-2) vs Bruno Lopes (14-3) 

Pick: Diyar Nurgozhay

When you didn’t think it could get any worse after the last fight, here comes Diyar Nurgozhay and Bruno Lopes. These are two of the lowest-level light heavyweights on the roster and are most likely fighting for their jobs. Neither does anything at an elite level, but at least Nurgozhay has a UFC win.

For that reason, I am siding with Nurgozhay. Unlike Lopes, who has suffered two brutal losses inside the octagon, Nurgozhay has at least found a way to win inside the octagon and seems to be on an upward trend. I expect Nurgozhay to take Lopes down and unload with ground strikes and finish the fight in the second round. 

Steven Asplund (7-2) vs Guilherme Pat (6-1) 

Pick: Steven Asplund

Steven Asplund is a prime example of the phrase “looks can be deceiving”. On the outside, his physique would have you believe he is a slow and easily exhausted heavyweight, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. In reality, Asplund pushes an insane pace for a heavyweight and seems to be at high energy throughout the entire fight, thanks to his over 200-pound weight loss. 

His opponent, Guilherme Pat, struggled with the pressure he faced from Thomas Peterson, who is far slower than Asplund. This seems like a pretty straightforward pick as I expect Asplund to push a pace that Pat can’t keep up with and ends up winning by first-round knockout. 

Ty Miller (7-0) vs Billy Ray Goff (9-4)

Pick: Ty Miller

Neither of these fighters loves to wrestle so the expectation should be that this is going to be very reminiscent of a kickboxing fight, with an emphasis on the boxing aspect. This makes the pick rather simple as it comes down to who fights that style of fight better, and in this case it is Ty Miller. 

To give Billy Ray Goff some credit, the guy loves a dog fight and is rather resilient, but he is far wilder than Miller. Goff is going to try and win this fight by launching overhand after overhand, while Miller will be more composed and look for shots down the middle. I think this is the fight where we finally say Goff knocked out and I think it happens in the second round. 

#8 Amanda Lemos (15-6-1) vs #12 Alexia Thainara (14-1)

Pick: Alexia Thainara

In one of only two matchups on this card featuring ranked fighters, Amanda Lemos is once again playing gatekeeper, this time to the top ten, against Alexia Thainara. At this point, it is pretty clear what Lemos does well and what she doesn’t. She is a strong kickboxer with elite power for her division but struggles with grappling, so it is a little difficult to understand why she keeps getting matched up with the division’s best grappler when she could be having entertaining fights with other strikers. 

Unfortunately, this is another one of those matchups for her as Thainara has proven herself as a relentless wrestler, and with her being 11 years younger than Lemos, it is hard to see how she won’t have a decisive speed and cardio advantage. The pick is that Thainara implements a rinse-and-repeat takedown style to win a decision and enter the strawweight top 10.

Darren Elkins (29-12) vs Yadie Del Valle (10-1)

Pick: Yadier Del Valle

Saturday night will be the last time Darren Elkins makes the walk to the UFC octagon, and it’s a little disappointing the UFC couldn’t find another veteran to pair with one of the more reliably entertaining fighters over the last 15 years. Instead, he is being given someone in Yadier Del Valle who is 12 years younger than him, and at this point probably more talented everywhere. 

Elkins was always known for his durability, but considering how poor his performance against Julian Erosa was, over a year ago, the chances feel minuscule that he could pull off the upset in his farewell fight. The pick is that Del Valle puts a beating on Elkins and the fight ends by a classic club-and-sub late in the fight. 

Billy Quarantillo (18-7) vs Diego Ferreira (19-7)

Pick: Diego Ferreira 

Both of these fighters are coming off of back-to-back losses with neither having won a fight in over two years. Even more specifically, both of these fighters were knocked out cold in their last appearances, so to me this is a test of whose durability and power I favor more.

Quarantillo is just about four years younger which on paper may make him seem more durable, but he has gotten dropped badly in a few of his fights and has been through some violent wars. What is more clear to me is that Ferreira is definitely more powerful. Ferreira has always had strong punching power and is the natural lightweight. 

If Ferreira is over the hill now at 41, this pick could come back to haunt me, but I trust him to get to the chin of Quarantillo first and end this fight by knockout. 

#8 Mateusz Gamrot (26-4) vs #12 Quillan Salkilld (12-1)

Pick: Mateusz Gamrot 

This is an incredible main event and truly difficult to pick. On one side of the cage you have perennial contender Mateusz Gamrot, who, at 26-4, has only lost to legitimate top lightweight contenders, and has made a career out of embarrassing everyone else. He has a chance to do the same thing to Quillan Salkilld, who looks the part of a future title challenger but we won’t know for certain until after this fight with Gamrot.

The question becomes who falls short? Is Gamrot’s experience with championship-level competition going to show against someone as raw as Salkilld, or is Salkilld truly the next elite contender at lightweight? 

I went back and forth on this for a long time, but what sticks out to me the most is the gap in strength of schedule. Considering how washed Beneil Dariush is, you can make the argument that Salkilld’s best win is against Nasrat Haqparast, who while a top 25-30 fighter in the division, is far below the level of Gamrot. On the other side, Gamrot has wins over contenders like Rafael Fiziev, Jalin Turner, and even the man many think will challenge next for the lightweight title, Arman Tsarukyan. 

If Salkilld’s skills carry over to this level of competition I will be happy to be proven wrong, but until he shows himself against even someone I consider to be top 20 it’s tough for me to pick him over an established contender like Gamrot. This has the makings for an awesome back-and-forth fight but with Gamrot’s experience, I think he pulls off the decision win.