Will Islam Makhachev Get Washed at Welterweight?

The MMA world is buzzing as UFC 322 approaches, and the main event is a welterweight title clash for the ages: reigning champion Jack Della Maddalena defending his belt against the lightweight king, Islam Makhachev. Makhachev, a fighter who has steamrolled nearly everyone at 155 pounds, is stepping up in weight to chase that elusive champ-champ status. But is he biting off more than he can chew?

The jump to welterweight is a notoriously difficult leap. Just ask the ghosts of champions past. The power and size difference between lightweight and welterweight is no joke, and while Makhachev is a force of nature, he’s entering a division where the big boys play. Some of his fellow fighters are already weighing in, and the predictions are starting to get spicy.

How Can Makhachev Lose to an Elite Welterweight?

Fellow UFC welterweight Carlos Prates isn’t exactly rolling out the red carpet for Makhachev. In a recent chat with MMA Fighting, Prates laid out a brutally simple blueprint for Della Maddalena to dismantle the lightweight champ. And honestly, it’s not rocket science.

“I think it’s defend the takedowns and beat him up, right?” Prates said, almost shrugging. It’s the classic anti-grappler strategy, but against a Dagestani powerhouse like Makhachev, it’s easier said than done. Still, Prates thinks the Aussie has the tools. “If you let him get on top, even if you’re good at jiu-jitsu, it’s hard to sweep a guy like that… His wrestling is very high-level.”

Prates’ game plan? “Defend the takedowns, tire him out, attack the body, the legs, and then knock him out.” Sounds simple enough, but the key here is the “tire him out” part. Can Della Maddalena, a natural welterweight, use his size and strength to wear down Islam Makhachev over five rounds? Prates seems to think so, giving the edge to the Aussie.

Can He Even Hang on the Feet?

Look, no one is calling Makhachev a slouch. “I know Makhachev is good on the feet and he’s good on the ground,” Prates admitted. But “good” at 155 might not be “good enough” at 170, especially against a certified boxer like Della Maddalena. This isn’t about just surviving; it’s about winning exchanges against a guy who lives to trade leather.

Dustin Poirier, one of the few men to have fought both Makhachev and his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov, gave his two cents on the matter. “I think Islam is a better complete fighter,” Poirier said at the UFC 322 Q&A. “He is better on the feet.” High praise, but he quickly followed it with a crucial caveat: “But grappling, I think Khabib is better than Islam.”

This is where it gets interesting. Makhachev relies on his sambo to control fights, but Poirier noted a key difference: “Khabib would shoot lower shots. I think Khabib is stronger, physically stronger.” If Makhachev’s upper-body clinch game gets neutralized by a stronger welterweight, he might find himself in a striking battle he can’t win.

Chin: The Real Weakness?

Let’s not forget the elephant in the room: Makhachev has been knocked out before. And “Blessed” Max Holloway thinks it could happen again. Backing Della Maddalena, Holloway questioned Islam’s famous gas tank and pointed out a potential crack in the armor. “When [Makhachev] gets hit sometimes, it looks like it gets to him,” Holloway observed.

Holloway predicts a tough first two rounds, but he sees Della Maddalena’s superior takedown defense eventually forcing Makhachev into a stand-up war he isn’t prepared for. “I think he’s going to defend a bunch of takedowns, and he’s going to get Islam tired,” Holloway said, predicting a third-round TKO for the Aussie.

If a featherweight legend like Holloway sees a path to victory through striking, you can bet the welterweight champion does too. The narrative is clear: if Della Maddalena can keep this fight standing and test Makhachev’s chin, we could see a new side of the lightweight king—one that isn’t so invincible. As the fight gets closer, the pressure is mounting on Islam Makhachev. He’s not just fighting an opponent; he’s fighting an entire weight class.