Could Kyle Larson dethrone Chase Elliott as NASCAR's most popular driver?

Chase Elliott's stranglehold on the award has seemed pretty concrete over the years. Despite Kyle Larson becoming Elliott's teammate at Hendrick Motorsports in 2021 and immediately winning the championship, Elliott remained at the top of the heap, at least in terms of popularity. 

Since Larson joined HMS in 2021, it's been clear that he is the most likely candidate to break Elliott's streak of winning the Most Popular Driver award. But despite Larson taking over as the most successful driver at Hendrick and Elliott's slight drop-off in performance following the 2022 season, it's yet to happen. 

However, one piece of information could be a piece of the puzzle to Larson breaking through and beating out Elliott for the Most Popular Driver award. On Friday, Adam Stern of Sports Business Journal reported that Larson is leading merchandise sales among Cup Series drivers at the halfway point of the regular season, a position usually held by Elliott in recent years. 

That one statistic isn't a reason to start creating a new graphic for Larson, but it's enough to raise some eyebrows. There are various reasons why Larson could be in a position to challenge and potentially beat Larson for the Most Popular Driver award. 

For starters, Larson has been a more frequent visitor to victory lane than Elliott in recent years. Since Elliott and Larson became teammates in 2021, Larson has won 26 races to Elliott's eight. Larson has also made the Championship 4 three times to Elliott's two appearances in that span. 

Those on-track numbers obviously weren't enough to swing the pendulum far enough Larson's way for him to win the award over the last four years, but Elliott's relative — emphasis on relative, considering he's currently fourth in the Cup Series standings despite a winless drought of over a year — lack of success compared to Larson could be a major factor in fan support. 

Add to the equation Larson's appearance on a global stage in the Indianapolis 500 over the last two years, and you have a host of IndyCar and open-wheel fans who saw Larson compete in the 'Greatest Spectacle in Racing' twice and could've been drawn to see him compete in NASCAR. 

It's far too early in the season to discuss whether or not an award based on arbitrary votes could change hands, but both on-track and off-track numbers suggest that Larson could at least give Elliott a run for his money in Most Popular Driver voting this fall.