Fantasy NASCAR Picks: Sleepers and Fades for Darlington

Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota

Reddick is the best average finisher at Darlington in the 8-race NextGen era, recording 5 top-5's and 6 top-10's. With the speed being flashed by Toyota and especially Reddick, he is a no-brainer to be a win threat this weekend.

Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Darlington is among Hamlin's best career tracks in terms of wins, with 6 wins and 1 in the NextGen era since 2022. In the 8-race sample size, Hamlin also adds 5 top-5's and 6 top-10's. Given the ferocious speed being flashed by the Toyotas, we shall expect zero drop off and about a 60% chance that Hamlin finishes in the top-5 this Sunday.

Mid-Tier Picks

Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford

Keselowski and his entire RFK Racing team are performing right to expectations through five races. All 3 cars on this team are top-13 in the NASCAR Cup Series Driver Standings. As for Keselowski, he has once won at Darlington in the NextGen era, with 4 total top-10 finishes.

There are only two racers in the current race entries that both average a top-20 start at Darlington and finish above their starting position — Chris Buescher (RFK) and Brad Keselowski.

Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford

As shown above, the RFK Racing team is primed to perform well at Darlington, just as they have historically. Even Ryan Preece averages a starting position of just 25th, yet he averages a 19th-place finish. These Fords shall work well in the long run. As for Buescher specifically, he has 5 top-10 finishes in 8 NextGen-era races, averaging a 13.4-place finish, 8th-best among active drivers.

Longshot Picks

Erik Jones, No. 43 LEGACY MOTOR CLUB Toyota

LEGACY MOTOR CLUB has not quite blown anyone away this season, but Jones has historical results that show promise at Darlington. Their car has definitely never been better than they are currently performing as a middling team.

Jones has won here at Darlington in the NextGen era with 2 top-5's and 3 top-10's; better than you will find from Jones at most other tracks. If these LEGACY Toyotas are primed, Jones has a very good top-10 shot.

Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford

It is a shame that Cindric is marked as a 'longshot,' but he is. On DFS platforms, Cindric is borderline 20th in price for the race, or below the field average. He has zero top-10's at Darlington in the NextGen era, but his averages are actually not so bad. Cindric averages a 14th-place start and a 17th-place finish. If these Fords are fast, and they shall be, Cindric will have a better-than-most longshot chance at the top-5 and top-10. Ultimately, Darlington is not a longshot-friendly track.