Five bold predictions for 2024 NASCAR season

With the Daytona 500 set to run on Sunday, the most anticipated weekend in American stock car racing is upon us. The festivities begin Wednesday night with qualifying for the front row. 

Before the cars hit the track, though, let's dish some bold hot takes on what might happen during this Cup Series season.

Ty Gibbs wins... multiple times

Maybe this isn't much of a bold prediction because it's no secret Gibbs — the 2023 Cup Series Rookie of the Year — is a burgeoning superstar. It's only a matter of when, not if, he emerges into that class of elite drivers at NASCAR's top level. After leading the most laps in the season-opening exhibition Clash, his ascent feels imminent.

Gibbs will earn his first career Cup win in 2024, and he won't stop there. He'll take two or three checkered flags throughout the season and could make a deep run into the playoffs.

Erik Jones makes the playoffs

If the end of 2023 were any indication, few drivers are poised for a bigger improvement in 2024 than Jones, who consistently flirted with running inside the top 10 throughout the playoffs. His Legacy Motor Club team should in theory be faster after switching to Toyota, and he'll have a great opportunity for the most successful season of his Cup career to date.

It's hard to say whether Jones will find victory lane in 2024, but unless there is mass chaos with winners from outside the top 16 in points, he will find himself in the playoffs.

Carson Hocevar earns Rookie of the Year

In 2024's rookie race, Josh Berry seems to be the heavy favorite, and the reason why is simple: his team, Stewart-Haas Racing, is far more established than Spire Motorsports, which houses his two rookie competitors, Hocevar and Zane Smith.

However, Spire is a team that is on the rise in the Cup garage while SHR is trending in the wrong direction, and Hocevar is a special talent who has already proved during some fill-in starts toward the end of 2023 that he can run in the top half of the field. When all is said and done, he'll finish ahead of Berry in points and take home Rookie of the Year honors.

Joey Logano goes winless, even-year streak ends

With the increase in parity in recent years, it seems like every season lately has a driver fail to win a race which no one is expecting. In 2022, it was Martin Truex Jr. In 2023, it was Chase Elliott. In 2024, it will be Logano.

Logano had perhaps the worst year of his Team Penske tenure in 2023, winning only once and being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs while his teammate Ryan Blaney won the championship. Blaney will continue to solidify his top-dog status with the organization in 2024, while Logano — who has qualified for the championship race in every single even-numbered year since the inception of NASCAR's elimination-style playoff format — may find himself struggling just to make the 16-man field.

Ross Chastain wins the Cup Series championship

It feels like the stars are aligning for Chastain. His 2023 season was somewhat of a step back from his breakout 2022 as he and his Trackhouse Racing team adjusted to the expectations of being among NASCAR's top contenders. His erratic driving style cost him dearly on a few occasions, but at the end of the season, he seemed to figure it out.

Chastain and Trackhouse are here to stay, which will be proven in 2024. He will consistently run inside the top five, rack up multiple wins throughout the season while staying out of trouble, and then at Phoenix — a track where he's a proven winner — he'll be crowned the champion of the 2024 Cup Series season.