It's time to have serious conversations about Riley Herbst's NASCAR future

As the NASCAR Xfinity Series raced toward the playoffs in August, Riley Herbst had to have been on Cloud Nine. 

After winning his second career race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 20, Herbst's name continued to be floated around as a possible candidate for a third 23XI Racing car in 2025, which would grant Herbst his first full-time Cup Series opportunity. 

However, a recent run of poor finishes resulted in Herbst being eliminated from the Xfinity Series playoffs on Saturday at the Charlotte Roval. Herbst's win at Indianapolis has been followed by six finishes of 13th or worse over the last nine races — numbers that don't exactly point to the 25-year-old being Cup Series-ready.  

Even if his funding is the main upside of signing Herbst, at some point, results have to warrant dedicating a Cup Series operation to a driver who hasn't yet proved he can consistently produce results on the big stage. His two Xfinity Series victories have certainly been impressive, but Herbst has yet to advance out of the first round of the Xfinity Series playoffs, and he has never finished better than 10th in points. While he got his first career win at Las Vegas in October 2023, that victory came in a year when Herbst failed to make the playoffs altogether while his teammate won the championship. 

Herbst is reportedly looking at options in all three series for 2025, but he said in September that he's not confident about his plans for next season. 

The best way for Herbst to gain confidence about his future in NASCAR? Win over the final four races of the season. He must prove that he can perform when the lights are brightest, and for a driver with nothing nailed down for next year, that time is now.