Kansas Cup Series Picks: Why Ty Dillon Could Upset Shane van Gisbergen This Weekend

Kansas Speedway brings out something special in NASCAR racing. The track’s worn surface and multiple grooves create opportunities for drivers to battle wheel-to-wheel, making it one of the most exciting venues on the circuit. But sometimes, the real story isn’t about the fastest car. It’s about who’s facing the most significant obstacles before the green flag even waves.

This weekend’s Hollywood Casino 400 presents a fascinating matchup that caught my attention while reviewing the latest penalties and starting positions. Shane van Gisbergen and his No. 88 Trackhouse Racing team faced significant penalties that could completely derail their race before it even began.

The Penalty That Changes Everything

Van Gisbergen’s situation heading into Sunday’s race is genuinely tough to watch. The team made unapproved adjustments before practice, and NASCAR came down hard. Crew chief Stephen Doran got ejected for the entire race, which means the No. 88 team loses a critical voice on the pit box during crucial moments.

But that’s just the beginning of van Gisbergen’s problems. The penalties stack up like a bad day at the office: losing pit stall selection means starting with one of the worst pit positions in the field, starting at the rear of the pack, and facing a stop-and-go penalty after the race goes green.

Picture this scenario. Van Gisbergen starts dead last, serves his stop-and-go penalty early, and unless there’s an immediate caution, he’s looking at going a lap down before most fans have finished their first hot dog. That’s a mountain to climb at any track, but Kansas demands clean air and track position to run competitively.

Why Kansas Picks Favor Track Position

Kansas has evolved into a driver’s track in the Next Gen era. The surface wears tires consistently, creating multiple racing lines that allow skilled drivers to make passes throughout the field. However, even with these characteristics, track position remains king, especially early in the race. When you’re starting from the back and facing immediate penalties, you’re essentially playing catch-up from lap one.

Van Gisbergen already struggles on larger ovals compared to road courses, and adding these hurdles makes his task nearly impossible. Michael McDowell faces similar penalties, which complicates van Gisbergen’s chances of securing the lucky dog position if an early caution is thrown. McDowell typically runs stronger on ovals like Kansas, meaning he’ll likely be ahead of van Gisbergen in the running order, blocking that crucial opportunity to get back on the lead lap.

Ty Dillon’s Opportunity at Kansas

Ty Dillon and the Kaulig Racing team don’t face any of these obstacles. They’ll start where they qualified, maintain their pit stall selection, and race without any penalty-related distractions. Sometimes in NASCAR, the best strategy is simply avoiding problems, while others create their own.

Dillon’s track record at Kansas may not stand out, but he has consistently demonstrated the ability to keep his car clean and capitalize on opportunities as they arise. With van Gisbergen facing such significant disadvantages, Dillon doesn’t need to be spectacular, but he just needs to race his normal race.

Kansas Picks Strategy for Sunday

The driver matchup between Dillon and van Gisbergen represents more than just betting value, but it also highlights how quickly circumstances can change in NASCAR. Van Gisbergen entered this weekend with reasonable expectations, but one penalty decision completely altered his race prospects. This situation reminds me why I love covering NASCAR. The sport throws curveballs that test teams’ adaptability and resilience.

Van Gisbergen and Trackhouse Racing will need to execute a flawless damage control strategy, hoping for early cautions and a perfect pit strategy to overcome their deficit. For Dillon, the opportunity is straightforward: run a clean race, avoid trouble, and let the circumstances work in his favor. Sometimes the best Kansas picks aren’t about finding the fastest driver, but identifying who faces the fewest obstacles to success.

The Bottom Line on This Kansas Matchup

NASCAR penalties create ripple effects that extend far beyond the initial punishment. Van Gisbergen’s penalties don’t just affect his starting position, but it has a direct impact on his entire race strategy, pit crew performance, and chances of staying on the lead lap. Dillon represents the steady, methodical approach that often succeeds when chaos surrounds other competitors. While van Gisbergen deals with damage control, Dillon can focus on racing forward and capitalizing on any mistakes from faster cars.

This Kansas race will test both drivers differently. Van Gisbergen must showcase his talent while overcoming significant adversity. Dillon needs to execute solid fundamentals while staying alert for opportunities. Based on the circumstances heading into Sunday, I’m backing the driver without the mountain to climb.