Kevin Harvick evaluates Shane van Gisbergen NASCAR playoff situation: ‘Tough hill to climb’

Shane van Gisbergen won four races during the regular season, tying Denny Hamlin for the most entering the playoffs. However, he currently sits 15 points below the cut line, and his chances of advancing out of the Round of 16 appear bleak.

Darlington and World Wide Technology Raceway didn’t break his way, leaving van Gisbergen in a tough position heading into Bristol. Kevin Harvick weighed in on the Trackhouse Racing driver’s situation and why an early elimination feels likely this weekend.

“They’ve actually qualified way better. So, I think the oval progression is still there,” Harvick explained, via Kevin Harvick’s Happy Hour. “Seeing how he qualified—he was super aggressive all day, but he beat his car up a little bit and put himself in a position where he got loose and got turned around. But honestly, these are some of the things he needs to do—see how far he can go with it. You saw him get loose getting into the corner, with Byron up against the wall too. He was really aggressive on all the restarts and in different scenarios, using the bumper.

“Those are things he really hasn’t done in the past. Maybe he was a little too aggressive on some of those restarts, and yeah, sometimes you’re going to spin the car out. Sometimes you’ve got to run into a few guys here and there. Now he’s experiencing that in the playoffs, and he knows it’s do-or-die in this first round on the ovals.

“But being 15 points out, it’s going to be a tough hill to climb for them on the ovals. … But you can see that the speed of the car and his comfort level—based on qualifying—is way up. I think they qualified 15th or 16th this weekend, and last week was better as well. So seeing that qualifying improve definitely shows you the comfort level is better, and the cars are getting better on the ovals.”

Harvick still believes in van Gisbergen’s long-term potential, pointing to clear signs of progress. His co-host Mamba Smith echoed that sentiment, suggesting 2026 could be a breakout season if the New Zealander continues learning NASCAR’s traditional ovals.

“If you look at it, and you told everyone he was only going to be 15 points out, you’d say, ‘Damn, that’s pretty respectable for what they’re trying to do.’ I think you’re really building for next year,” Smith added. “They’re looking at these moments as building blocks for next year.

“Maybe it’s a little too aggressive right now. But we want to start closer to this level of aggression next year instead of easing into it, so we’re further down the road when we get back to the playoffs. And he’s going to be back in the playoffs—as long as there are road courses on the schedule.”

For now, it hasn’t clicked for van Gisbergen in the playoffs, but perhaps he has one more trick up his sleeve for Bristol. Whether he advances or not, the focus will remain on growth—and so far, the progress is undeniable.