NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race preview: Favorite, underdog, top storylines

On Saturday, the first round of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will come to a close at Bristol Motor Speedway. Here's what you need to know before the Bass Pro Shops Night Race (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network). 

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+275, per DraftKings) 

Larson has won the last two Bristol races in dominant fashion, and he pretty much has nothing to lose regarding the playoff picture. He's all but locked up a spot in the Round of 12, and he can keep the momentum rolling with a third consecutive Bristol win on Saturday. 

Underdog: AJ Allmendinger (+2500, DraftKings) 

Allmendinger won his first Cup Series pole since 2015 on Friday. He'll lead the Cup Series field to green on Saturday evening in search of his first Cup Series win since 2023, and he's in position to shock the world again. The key for the No. 16 team will be avoiding major mistakes, especially on pit road. 

Four drivers on playoff chopping block 

Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman and Josh Berry enter Saturday's race below the playoff cut line. Dillon and van Gisbergen could advance on points, while Bowman and Berry will likely need wins in order to advance to the second round. Austin Cindric (+11 over Dillon) is the man on the bubble going into Saturday. 

Does PJ1 improve the racing product? 

After a universally criticized spring race at Bristol, NASCAR and SMI opted to apply PJ1 — a traction compound — on the bottom of the racetrack in an effort to produce side-by-side racing. The compound appeared to work well during Thursday's Truck Series race and Friday's Xfinity Series race, and it could be the cure for a Next-Gen car that hasn't raced particularly well at Bristol in the past.