Why Chase Elliott Is 'The Hardest Guy to Predict' Going Into Martinsville, According to Jamie McMurray

Chase Elliott enters Martinsville at the tail end of the Round of 8 standings, 62 points below the cutline. Yet if there’s one track where he can turn the tide, it’s this one. Martinsville has long been Elliott’s stronghold. He won there in 2020 and holds an 11.7 average finish on the paperclip-shaped circuit.

Even last year, during the penultimate race of the season, Elliott looked ready to punch his ticket to the finale. He won Stage 1 and led 129 laps, second only to Brad Keselowski’s 170, before Ryan Blaney stole the lead on Lap 486 of 500 and pulled away to win by 2.593 seconds.

Elliott crossed the line second, eliminated from playoff contention alongside teammate and third-place finisher Kyle Larson, ultimately wrapping up the season seventh in points.

The #9 HMS driver’s consistency at Martinsville remains undeniable. Three straight top-five finishes in the last three races speak for themselves. Yet, as Jamie McMurray noted, predicting how Elliott will perform is like reading smoke. Unlike emotional racers such as Denny Hamlin, Elliott keeps his cards close to the vest.

That’s why when Steve Letarte said on Inside the Race, “I don’t think it’s crazy to think Chase Elliott could win,” McMurray replied, “He’s the hardest guy in the whole series, I think, to predict how they’re going to do.”

Letarte further elaborated, “You get nothing from (his) emotion. But I also just look at the way their season has been, and I feel like about the time you count them out, they come back and they have a spectacular run. So, Chase is the hardest one for me. He could go, and he could win this weekend, or they could just have an average day. He wouldn’t be on my list, though, of the guy. To me, it’s more of a Blaney that’s below that cut line.”

For Elliott, the math is simple but brutal. Even if he sweeps both stages, he can’t advance on points alone; it’s win or bust for the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team. His qualifying effort could make all the difference. Historically, Elliott has started mostly in the top 10 at Martinsville, and this time also, a front-row start might be the edge he needs to keep his championship hopes alive.