Why these three Cup Series drivers could face surprise playoff exits

NASCAR's best prepare to begin their quest for the Bill France Cup in the playoff opener at Darlington Raceway on Sunday (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), kicking off a Round of 16 slate that also includes World Wide Technology Raceway (Sept. 7) and Bristol Motor Speedway (Sept. 13).

While regular-season champion William Byron and Kyle Larson have a 26-point advantage and Denny Hamlin (+23) and Ryan Blaney (+20) have some breathing room, the rest of the field is extremely tight.

With little room for error and some inconsistent results, either throughout the season or as of late, these three drivers could be out after the Round of 16 if they are not careful.

Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Of the three drivers on this list, Elliott should have the best chance to move on to the Round of 12, but is still not safe by any means. With only seven points to the good above the cutline, the 2020 champion and seven-time Most Popular Driver needs to revert back to his consistency if he is going to advance.

Until a 26th at Watkins Glen and his first DNF of the season at Richmond, Elliott had 23 consecutive top-20 finishes to begin the season. As impressive as that was, he was not scoring stage points in most of those races, which is a must in the playoffs.

Elliott and the No. 9 team have as much resiliency as any team in the series and have proven that time and again. However, with a best finish of 10th (Daytona) in the last five races, Elliott cannot afford to continue at that rate with the playoff field as tight as it is.

Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford

To say the 2025 season for Logano has been disappointing would be an understatement as the defending champion opens the Round of 16 only one point above the cutline.

While Elliott's lack of stage points has been concerning, Logano has been hit-or-miss each week. He only has three top-fives and seven top-10s in 26 races. Aside from his lone win of the season at Texas on May 4, there have not been many bright spots.

Logano is a previous winner at each of the Round of 16 tracks, so perhaps another clutch playoff run is in store. Considering how his 2025 season has gone to this point, though, it is hard to see him making another championship push without some help.

Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota

Yes, Reddick enters the playoffs 14th of the 16 drivers and one point below the cutline. It was just one season ago that he was the regular-season champion, which speaks to how 2025 has played out for him.

Execution issues and some poor luck have plagued Reddick and the No. 45 team all season, including an eventful Daytona race that saw him involved in the race's second caution on Lap 19, only to lock up his playoff berth a few laps later when Alex Bowman was caught up in the "Big One" on Lap 27.

If Reddick does not have a strong showing at Darlington, where he has four top-five finishes, he could go from regular-season champion to being out after the first round in one year.