10 keys to winning the 2019 NBA Finals

The Toronto Raptors could play better than at any point in the history of the franchise and still get swept by the Golden State Warriors in the 2019 NBA Finals. That speaks to how intimidating and frightening the Warriors appear coming off their sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers. 

The reality is that this series could get ugly if both DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant prove merely useful over three or four games. Anybody actually believing the Warriors are better without Durant on the court should realize Toronto players and coaches are crossing fingers and toes hoping he won't feature, because his calf is worse than Golden State would have you believe ahead of Game 1.

These hobbled Warriors aren't as good, on paper, as the squads that made light work of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2017 and 2018. With that said, Toronto wouldn't match up well against the 2016 Cavs that serve as the only break in Golden State's dynastic run — one that may be in its final stretch as of the evening of May 30. 

Toronto showed tremendous resolve in getting off the mat after being downed by the Milwaukee Bucks in the first two games of the conference finals. But beating the 10-count against Golden State may be an impossible task.

The first two 

Probably the hottest take here is that the Raptors have little to no shot of notching the upset if they drop one of the first two games of the Finals at home. Something seemingly ignored by those previewing the series is the Warriors get rattled when things don't go their way, such as when Stephen Curry threw his mouthpiece toward a fan in Game 6 of the 2016 Finals or Draymond Green going full Draymond. Opposing audiences get under their skin, and the Scotiabank Arena crowd should provide more energy and noise for Game 1 than any group of home fans who've ever watched the Raptors. Golden State flipping the home-court advantage out west could result in the reigning two-time champs lifting the Larry O'Brien Trophy either at Oracle Arena on June 7 or up north on June 10.

Boogie 

No disrespect to Kevon Looney or Andrew Bogut, the latter having apparently fallen out of favor with head coach Steve Kerr and who averaged six minutes per game in the series vs. Portland, but DeMarcus Cousins at 80 percent is unquestionably Golden State's best big. Cousins' quad may never fully recover before the end of his tenure with the Warriors, but even having him on the bench presents Kerr with different and improved rotations to throw at Toronto's Nick Nurse. Unless you accidentally stumbled upon this link, you're aware Cousins is an All-Star who can be the best big on the court when healthy and motivated. Aside from the numbers he's capable of posting, Cousins in the lineup should lighten Green's defensive load, which, in theory, would allow Green to concentrate on matching the offensive stats he produced in four wins over Portland.

Bulletin board 

Ed Barkowitz of Philly.com praised Toronto while quipping the Raptors have "got more onions than an Italian Market produce stand." That's cute, but Barkowitz isn't picking Toronto to win the series, and he's hardly alone. Only two of 20 individuals asked to predict the series by ESPN are going with the underdogs, and literally no CBS Sports personality dared to bank on Toronto.

In February 2008, New York Giants players felt relaxed heading into their Super Bowl XLII showdown with the unbeaten New England Patriots in part because they felt nobody believed they could win other than those inside the Big Blue locker room. Nurse's pre-Game 1 talk should focus on the idea Toronto is playing with house money in the eyes of those convinced this series is a foregone conclusion.

The best Draymond 

Years from now when the dust has settled and both men have ridden into the figurative sunset, Steve Kerr must inform the public how he repeatedly got the best out of Draymond Green during springtime games. Green is never better than when on the NBA's biggest stage — the Warriors likely would be chasing a fourth-straight title had he not gotten himself suspended in Game 5 of the 2016 Finals, a series he ended by scoring 32 points in a losing effort.

In a video-game simulation, Toronto is better equipped with depth and talent to handle the Curry-Green pick and roll that's the best in the business and that humbled the Trail Blazers as Green averaged over 16 points and 8.8 assists a night and Curry went nuclear. It's not as if that play is a secret weapon. Portland knew it was coming, particularly with Durant sidelined, and couldn't stop it. That's why the next man spotlighted may be the biggest key to Toronto winning the Finals.

Serge Ibaka

If Kawhi Leonard's main defensive assignment becomes torpedoing the pick and roll, it could mean either Nurse doesn't trust anybody else for that duty or things went horribly wrong at that end of the court. Leonard is the right man for the job, no doubt. But Serge Ibaka, a defensive stalwart, is quick enough to switch over to Curry when Golden State goes small without Durant on the floor. Yes, Toronto needs Ibaka and other previous non-starters (assuming Nurse puts Ibaka into the lineup for Game 1) to get buckets to have a chance, but Ibaka's defensive contributions, or lack thereof, could make or break the Raptors as the series progresses.

Andre Iguodala's health 

Andre Iguodala isn't the same player who won NBA Finals MVP in 2015. He's now 35 years old. He picked up a calf injury during Golden State's series with the Houston Rockets, but he's shown he can still start with Cousins and Durant serving as spectators. Similar to Ibaka, Iguodala is a vital cog in his side's defensive game plan. If Iguodala is healthy enough to give Golden State 30 minutes a night during what may be the last series of his career, Kerr can put the veteran on Leonard and also play varying smaller lineups. As unconscious as Leonard is at the moment, this isn't Iguodala's first rodeo. He also hasn't played since May 18. Until Durant is ready to return, Iguodala should cover Leonard during fourth-quarter scenarios. Klay Thompson, arguably the league's most underrated defender, can handle things if Iguodala requires additional rest.

Fred VanVleet

Following the Eastern Conference Finals, Jordan Greer of the Sporting News named Raptors sixth man Fred VanVleet as "the X-factor that pushed Toronto to the NBA Finals." After Toronto dropped the first two contests to the Bucks, VanVleet was largely anonymous in the Game 3 win, and he then flew home for the birth of his second child. What followed was a rebirth of his shooting form, as he drained a ridiculous 14 of 17 three-pointers and went 68 percent from the field, per Bleacher Report, in the final three games of the series. The Warriors, simply put, have no such weapon coming off the bench as of the opening minute of Game 1.

Last December, Louis Zatzman of Raptors Republic offered reasons for why VanVleet should be considered an elite defender. Aside from his scoring, which Toronto desperately needs every night against the Warriors, he could irritate Curry on defense while earning additional minutes if he remains hot. Don't expect to see this matchup in the final minute of a one-score game, but his usefulness at that end of the court would allow Leonard to concentrate on somebody other than Curry.

Durant's status 

Arguing that Tottenham Hotspur must start striker Harry Kane for the June 1 Champions League Final vs. Liverpool even if he isn't fully fit is like arguing that the Spurs can't sit their best overall player as long as he can go. Similar reasoning applies regarding any alleged think pieces claiming the Warriors are better without Durant. He broke the hearts of King James and Cleveland fans across nine games and eight Golden State victories the last two years, averaging 32 PPG over those contests en route to earning a pair of Finals MVP trophies. He makes every roster and lineup that much better.

No team, not even one with Leonard, is capable of limiting a Golden State offense with Durant reinserted into the lineup over what could, essentially, become a best-of-five championship series. His mere presence shifts Leonard's focus and frees things up for Curry, Green, Klay Thompson and Cousins. Don't forget: It's public knowledge KD reads his @ mentions. Just the idea that Golden State doesn't need him is additional fuel for who is about to become the NBA's most coveted free agent.

Kawhi's MVP form 

We end with the most obvious Game 1 keys, the first being Toronto won't win a contest, let alone the series, if Leonard isn't the best player on the floor night in and night out. The 27-year-old silenced those who thought Giannis Antetokounmpo had supplanted him as the Association's top two-way player in four consecutive victories over the Bucks, and nobody who has featured in every playoff series is averaging more points per game than Leonard (31.2 PPG). Thirty points should be his offensive floor with no Durant there to face him.

Unlike us mere mortals, the 2014 NBA Finals MVP who handled LeBron that series, as ESPN's John McTigue explained, will relish defending against Golden State's high-powered attack. It doesn't require being an insider or a basketball guru to understand the Raptors are only going as far as Leonard carries them.

Steph 

After 32 games, it's safe to call something a trend. The stat most repeated since Golden State's last on-the-court appearance is that the Warriors have gone 31-1 in their previous 32 contests with Curry and without Durant. Curry dropped 36, 37, 36 and 37 points in four wins over Portland and shot over 42 percent from beyond the arc. Overshadowed by storylines regarding injuries, players potentially leaving via free agency or retirement and Toronto's fairy tale run, it feels as if Curry's greatness is flying under the radar.

The three-time champion and two-time league MVP unquestionably will find openings for others if Leonard decides he must routinely meet Curry at halfcourt. Curry exposing such weaknesses while avoiding foul trouble, which has been a real concern this postseason, makes a Warriors team with or without Durant nearly unbeatable in a series.

Then again, the chef of the Splash Brothers could just torch Toronto for 35 points in each of the first two games while converting 40 percent of his three-point attempts to put the Raptors to bed before a minute is played at Oracle Arena.