May 16, 2023; Chicago, IL, USA; People walk past the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery board at McCormick Place West. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images David Banks-Imagn Images

2025 NBA Draft Lottery: Best and Worst Case Scenarios For The Atlanta Hawks Tomorrow Night

Originally posted on Atlanta Hawks on SI
By Jackson Caudell | Last updated May 11, 2025 7:11 PM ET

The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery is tomorrow night and while it is going to be highly anticipated to see which team lands Duke superstar Cooper Flagg, the Atlanta Hawks will not be one of those teams. Unlike last season, the Hawks don't have a shot at landing the No. 1 pick, but that does not mean that it won't be very important for new general manager Onsi Saleh.

Let's dig into the best/worst case scenarios for the Hawks tomorrow night.

Best Case

Atlanta is guaranteed to have one first-round pick (Lakers Pick at No. 22), but they could have another one in the lottery. The Hawks acquired this pick in the Kevin Huerter trade three years ago and if it lands outside of the top 12, it is theirs. Sacramento enters the lottery in position No. 13, with a 3.8% chance of moving into the top four and a 0.8% chance of winning the lottery. The pick will either move into the top four, stay at 13 or move down one spot to 14. The odds highly favor Atlanta to get the pick and it would be a useful asset to a team that is still building a contending roster. Given the uncertainty of what the Kings roster will be next season, this could be the last chance Atlanta has for it to convey. Next year, the pick will move to being top-10 protected, but there have already been rumblings of Sacramento making big changes in the offseason ahead. If Atlanta can get the pick to land at 13 and have two first rounders and two chances to get impact players for the future, it would be pretty big for this franchise.

Worst Case

There are a couple of bad things that could happen tomorrow, but one being worse than the other.

The worst case scenario for the Hawks is if the the pick leaps into the top four and the Kings get to keep it. Then, Atlanta has just one pick this year (No.22) and no chance at a lottery pick. With Sacramento jumping into the top four, they may feel more inclined to blow their team up, lessening the chances Atlanta gets the pick next season.

There is a scenario that is bad, but the Hawks still have a lottery pick.

Due to the Dejounte Murray trade three years ago, the Spurs own the Hawks's pick this season, giving them two shots at landing the No. 1 pick and getting Duke star Copper Flagg. Now, that pick is projected to be 14th, with a 3.4% chance of moving into the top four and a 0.4% chance of winning the lottery. We will know quickly if the Hawks pick has moved into the top four. The Hawks could come out fine, but it would be a disaster if this pick moved into the top four or worse, into No. 1. If the pick does go from 14 and into the top four, Atlanta could still pick 14th, but the optics of giving the Spurs a top-four pick would not be good.