2026 NBA Draft: The Productive Sophomore Query

Introduction: The Study

The NBA Draft is undoubtedly not an exact science. Front office members and agents take many factors into account -- film, analytics, intel, medicals, and more. Everyone wants to find a diamond in the rough or feel more certain about players projected to be picked in the first round. In order to do this, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent.

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played five-plus seasons in the NBA. Prospects who qualified in recent seasons had projections created for them based on career statistics and overall performance thus far.

There were 58 sophomores throughout the 15 college basketball seasons from 2010-2024 who played at least 40% of their team's minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +9, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 72.4% (42/58) of those sophomores played five-plus years in the NBA or are projected to stick in the league.

The purpose of this query is to find sophomore breakouts and players who are still underclassmen (but not freshmen) who are being trusted to play almost a majority of their team's minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.

Productive Sophomore Query: Player Outcomes

Sticking in the NBA is one thing, but how impactful were the players who stuck? Below I grouped the 58 players (including the two with unknown outcomes) who have met the Productive Sophomore Query from 2010-2024 into four subcategories based on Draft Express Pick Expectations. One highlight: Nearly 45% of players to meet the criteria (26 of the 58 players) became NBA starters or multi-time All-Stars.

Players were grouped into the following five categories:

Did Not Stick

Players who met the Productive Sophomore Query (PSQ) but did not stick in the NBA or are projected to not stick: Kyle Weems ('10), Chris Johnson ('10), Jordan Hamilton ('11), PJ Hairston ('13), Briante Weber ('13), Ron Baker ('14), Chinanu Onuaku ('16), Ethan Happ ('17), Jacob Evans III ('17), Armoni Brooks ('18), Killian Tille ('18), Jarrett Culver ('19), Alan Griffin ('20), Daniel Oturu ('20), Drew Timme ('21), and Hunter Dickinson ('22)

In an effort to make the player outcomes more accurate, the two players in the "Unknown" category (Drew Timme and Hunter Dickinson) were grouped into "Did Not Stick" based on current career statistics.

Backup: Five NBA seasons, with career 10-24 minutes per game, or over 4000 career NBA minutes

Backup Players who met the Productive Sophomore Query: Jordan Crawford ('10), Derrick Williams ('11), Jared Sullinger ('12), Terrence Jones ('12), Trey Burke ('13), Cody Zeller ('13), Kyle Anderson ('14), Robert Williams ('18), Xavier Tillman ('19), Chuma Okeke ('19), Bruno Fernando ('19), Obi Toppin ('20), Jalen Smith ('20), Tari Eason ('22), Ryan Kalkbrenner ('22), and Kyle Filipowski ('24)

Based on their current careers thus far, Kalkbrenner and Filipowski were both grouped into the Backup category. With these queries being updated consistently, the categories in which players are grouped into are fluid as careers continue.

Starter: Career 24 minutes per game or higher, or started over half of career NBA games (minimum 21 minutes per game)

Starters who met the Productive Sophomore Query: Dion Waiters ('12), Otto Porter ('13), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ('13), Willie Cauley-Stein ('14), Marcus Smart ('14), TJ Warren ('14), Gary Harris ('14), Kris Dunn ('15), Josh Hart ('15), Jakob Poetl ('16), Mikal Bridges ('17), John Collins ('17), PJ Washington ('19), De'Andre Hunter ('19), Devin Vassell ('20), Franz Wagner ('21), Keegan Murray ('22), Walker Kessler ('22), Mark Williams ('22), Brandin Podziemski ('23), Zach Edey ('22), and Donovan Clingan ('24)

Both Edey and Clingan were grouped into the Starter category based on current career statistics.

All-Star: Two or more appearances in the NBA All-Star Game

All-Star Players who met the Productive Sophomore Query: Draymond Green ('10), Donovan Mitchell ('17), Ja Morant ('19), and Tyrese Haliburton ('20)

The Results

Out of the 58 players who have met the Productive Sophomore Query from the 2010-2024 college basketball seasons...

• 27.6% of them did not stick in the NBA (16 players)
• 27.6% of them became Backups (16 players)
• 37.9% of them became Starters (22 players)
• 6.9% of them became multi-time All-Stars (4 players)