The loss of Fred VanVleet is a monumental one for the Houston Rockets. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
It's a silly premise. Particularly if you saw Houston’s opening postseason series against the Golden State Warriors. He raised his level of play to the point where Golden State simply couldn't stop him.
To the tune of 18.7 points, 43 percent from the floor, 43.5 percent from deep (on 8.9 attempts), and 63.2 percent true shooting. VanVleet has also been the vocal leader. Just ask Alperen Sengun how much he aided in his development.
But Houston's season isn't over. Let's be truthful here.
Very few teams will trot out a better Big Three than Sengun, Kevin Durant, and Amen Thompson -- who will be tasked with replacing VanVleet.
However, there are several big questions that will determine Houston's season (aside from the obvious question about Houston's starting lineup).
Houston has the option to play inside-out. Anytime you have a very good passing big man like Sengun, you can allow him to feed open outside shooters. It's why he's drawn comparisons to Nikola Jokic and Domantas Sabonis.
Allowing Sengun to be the offensive fulcrum (SenHub, as it's been coined) is bound to generate an abundance of open 3-point shots. However, Houston ranked 21st in deep shooting last season and 23rd in deep shooting in 2023-24, and they didn't add any 3-point specialists this summer.
The Rockets always had a lack of depth at the point guard position. This would've held true even if VanVleet wasn't injured.
Aaron Holiday is an emergency guard. He's not necessarily supposed to play 25 minutes on a nightly basis. Now, Sheppard and Holiday are the only true point guards on the roster.
And Holiday is still better served as an emergency fallback. That leaves Sheppard as the lone point guard on the roster. And he could be Houston's best long-range shooter. As noted earlier, Houston has struggled in that department over the last several seasons, despite being the second-best team in the Western Conference in 2024-25.
Sheppard led the country in 3-point shooting in his lone season at Kentucky, shooting 52.5 percent from deep. He was in line for a bigger role, even with a healthy VanVleet.
His role becomes even more catastrophic without VanVleet. Will he be ready?
As Durant has gotten older, he's started to miss chunks of games. He played 62 games in 2024-25, 75 games in 2023-24, 47 games in 2022-23, 55 games in 2021-22, and 35 games in 2020-21.
Add it all up, and Durant has only played 70+ games once in the last six seasons. Think that's too high of an arbitrary number?
He's only played 60 games twice in the last six seasons. Houston's ability to carry on without Durant for 20+ games was always going to be an unsolved mystery, but it becomes exponentially harder without VanVleet.
Houston will be relying even more heavily on Sengun and Thompson, who will be tasked with quite a bit, both with and without Durant. Will they be able to carry an even bigger load in his absence?
That will likely dictate the Rockets' seeding. Gone is Jalen Green, a lock for 82 games. Cam Whitmore isn't on the roster anymore either.
In other words, the Rockets don't have the depth to hold up without Durant for an extended period of time.
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