Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Adam Silver Makes Opinion On NBA Draft Lottery Conspiracy Clear

Originally posted on The Spun | By Daniel Bates | Last updated Jun 4, 2025 3:38 PM ET

The NBA Draft's lottery system has been called into question for years at this point. But commissioner Adam Silver believes the Mavs winning the No. 1 pick last month is proof that it's working.

Appearing on FOX's "Breakfast Ball" on Wednesday, Silver credited Dallas for not tanking while also shutting down the idea that there was some handshake conspiracy for them to land Cooper Flagg after trading away Luka Doncic.

"Remember, the worst-performing team had a 14% chance of winning, so there was an 86% chance that they wouldn't get it," Silver explained. "Dallas roughly had a 2% chance — so the losingest team had a seven-times better chance. So 2% is 2%, it's gonna happen."

"The purpose of the lottery is to disincentivize teams from tanking," he continued. "So here you have a team... They were trying to win. Then Kyrie got injured, and Anthony Davis got injured. So then they found themselves in the lottery. Again, odds are odds and that's how it turned out."

One of the things people tend to forget about 2% odds is that they happen 2% of the time.

While extremely unlikely that the Mavericks would land the rights to draft Flagg with the first overall pick, it wasn't impossible.

And looking past the fact that Dallas was one Play-In game away from making the playoffs and not even qualifying for the lottery ignores all reality.

With all that said, the system isn't perfect (and more often than not keeps bad teams down). But the narrative that the Mavs were ensured the first pick for trading their franchise player to the Lakers seems to be absent of any critical thought.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: