American-Born Player Might Not Win An MVP Award Until 2030

In what could be historical, there is a real possibility that an American-born player might not win an MVP award until at least 2030. The trend of international dominance in the NBA has been evident for years, and it shows no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Since 2020, the NBA MVP award has exclusively gone to international superstars:

- 2020 MVP – Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece)

- 2021 MVP – Nikola Jokic (Serbia)

- 2022 MVP – Nikola Jokic (Serbia)

- 2023 MVP – Joel Embiid (Cameroon)

- 2024 MVP – Nikola Jokic (Serbia)

This season, the MVP race is once again led by international players, with Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the top three candidates. American players are struggling to break through, and there’s no guarantee that they will reclaim the award in the next few years.

Looking ahead, the MVP conversation will only get more competitive with the continued rise of Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama. Doncic, who has already been an MVP-caliber player for years, will enter his absolute prime in the coming seasons and should be a perennial favorite. 

Meanwhile, Wembanyama has already displayed historic defensive and offensive potential in his first two years. Within the next few seasons, he could become one of the most dominant forces in basketball.

On top of that, Jokic, Shai, and Giannis are still in their prime and will continue to be leading MVP candidates. Jokic has shown no signs of slowing down and remains the most dominant offensive center in decades. 

Shai is steadily evolving into a superstar with his elite scoring efficiency, and Giannis continues to be a two-way nightmare for opponents. These three alone make it incredibly difficult for an American player to break through and win MVP.

Right now, the best hope for an American MVP comes from Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards. Tatum has consistently been a top-five MVP candidate over the past few years, leading the Boston Celtics to championship contention. 

If he takes another leap, he could finally break through. Edwards, on the other hand, has the potential to become the face of the NBA, but he will need to put up historic numbers on a top-seeded team to win the award.

Two years ago, our analysts predicted that European and international players would continue to dominate the NBA, and that prediction has been proven correct. Not only is this year's MVP race entirely led by non-American players, but the future outlook suggests that the trend will continue.

LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry—the three dominant American players of the last generation—are in the twilight of their careers and are no longer putting up MVP-level numbers. As a result, there is no clear American successor to take over as the league’s best player, at least in the immediate future.

If current trends continue, the next American-born NBA MVP might not come until 2030 or later. The league is more international than ever, and the world’s best talent is proving that the MVP award is no longer exclusive to American superstars.